BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 12. Anticipated global liquid fuels production is set to experience a rise of 1.4 mb/d in 2023, propelled by robust growth from non-OPEC producers, Trend reports.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), this increase comes despite production reductions from OPEC and Russia. Notably, this projection aligns with Saudi Arabia's recent announcement on August 3rd, confirming the extension of its voluntary 1 mb/d production cut through September.
In the context of Russia, EIA expects a decline in production ranging from 0.2 mb/d to 0.3 mb/d on average for this year compared to 2022, with no change predicted for 2024.
Meanwhile, looking ahead to 2024, the administration's forecast indicates a more substantial rise of 1.7 mb/d in global liquid fuels production, which exceeds the EIA's estimate from the previous month by over 0.2 mb/d. Despite ongoing production cuts extending into 2024, there's a likely average increase of 0.6 mb/d in OPEC crude oil production. This growth is attributed to higher production targets for the UAE, as well as augmented production from Iran and Venezuela.
The primary impetus behind global production growth in the forecast stems from non-OPEC nations. The EIA's projections indicate that non-OPEC production will witness a rise of 2.1 mb/d in 2023, followed by a 1.2 mb/d increase in 2024.
While the US is poised to lead this non-OPEC growth, contributing 1.3 mb/d in supply expansion for 2023 and 0.5 mb/d for 2024, the EIA anticipates robust growth from other non-OPEC producers as well. In South America, Brazil is expected to bolster production by 0.5 mb/d from 2022 to 2024, primarily driven by amplified output from floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessels. Among other countries, our forecast highlights significant growth in 2024 for Canada, Guyana, and Norway.