BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 15. As a result of the curtailed activity in Russian refineries, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down the forecast for refinery throughput rates by 160,000 b/d to 83.3 mb/d for 2024, Trend reports.
According to the agency, global refinery operations are facing challenges due to recent attacks on Russian refineries, resulting in a more than 500,000 b/d reduction in processing rates in March and April. These attacks have the potential to cause further disruptions throughout the second quarter of 2024.
In addition to the Russian refinery issues, unplanned outages in Europe and limited activity in Chinese refineries are contributing to a slower recovery from the low point experienced in the first quarter of the year.
Annual growth has been adjusted to 1 mb/d, with most gains expected in the second half of the year. Looking ahead to 2025, refinery runs are projected to increase to 84.2 mb/d, up by 830,000 b/d year-on-year, the IEA forecasts.
While non-OECD countries are anticipated to drive growth by 1.1 mb/d, a contraction of 300,000 b/d is expected in OECD regions. Despite challenges, including reduced Russian refinery runs and tepid activity in China, refining performance in the US and Mexico has been better than expected, offsetting some losses.
Although refining activity is forecasted to recover in the second quarter of 2024 before planned maintenance later in the year, growth remains modest at around 200,000 b/d. With global demand growth, including for products derived from NGLs and biofuels, expected to average 1.2 mb/d this year, there is a continued need for refinery runs to increase by 1 mb/d year-on-year to allow for some rebuilding of product stocks.