BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.1
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global oil demand will gradually decline to almost half the current consumption level by 2050, Trend reports with reference to DNV GL, a Norway-based company.
“The transport sector accounts for two thirds of oil demand, and the rest is divided between non-energy use, particularly as petrochemical feedstock, and other energy uses. The transport-sector’s share of oil demand has increased in recent decades, but will now start to reduce. In 2018, most of the transport sector’s 53 Mb/d oil demand was from road vehicles; passenger vehicles and two- and three-wheelers will experience the most dramatic conversion to electricity, and the decline in oil demand from commercial road vehicles will be slower,” reads the DNV GL report.
The company believes that by 2050, the oil demand in the road-transport sector will have reduced by 56 percent compared with 2018. “Maritime will see a faster reduction, reaching only 6 percent of its current oil demand by 2050. Aviation will be dependent on oil for longer, not reducing below 61 percent of current consumption by 2050. In the aviation and maritime segments, synthetic fuels, biofuels, and other low-carbon fuels, rather than electrification, will drive decarbonization.
The Middle East and North Africa region will continue to dominate the oil-supply picture and later strengthen its position further, as this is where the cheapest oil resources with the easiest access are located. North America will maintain its production level in the next two decades, despite its own regional demand decreasing, with shale oil taking a larger share in total production.”
For the last 30 years, the world’s oil demand has been increasing at an average rate of 1.1 percent/yr, said the company. “There has been a slight decline (less than 1 percent/yr) in oil demand for North America and OECD Pacific over the past decade. Europe has experienced a higher reduction rate of 3 percent/yr over the past 10 years.”
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