BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.14
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
OPEC+ is set to add barrels in relatively restrained increments in 2022, Trend reports with reference to the US JP Morgan Bank.
“Our latest update results in a small boost to the 2022 surplus, now at a glaring 2.2 mbd, indicating that OPEC+’s current plan to bring back an additional 3.8 mbd of supply over next year will likely prove unsustainable. Rather, in line with our previous expectations, we forecast OPEC+ will ultimately only bring around 2.6 mbd of production back online in 2022, strategically adding barrels in relatively restrained increments. Nonetheless, this trajectory still results in a meaningful surplus and points toward Brent prices ending next year at $60/bbl amid growing oversupply in 2H22, and we maintain our forecasts for Brent to average $71/bbl for full-year 2022, falling from averages of $76 in 1Q22 and 2Q22 to $62 in 4Q22,” said the Bank.
On net, JP Morgan says the market should remain in deficit through year-end and will likely continue to draw inventories, just a bit less (9.2 million barrels) than what it projected three weeks ago.
“Hence we keep our price targets unchanged and maintain the trajectory of gradually rising prices from today’s $71/bbl to an average of $75/bbl in 4Q21 (YE 2021 target $78/bbl).”
At the 20th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM), held Sept.1 2021, the sides reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th ONOMM and the decision to adjust upward the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of October 2021.
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