BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 4. In a recent report by the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, global oil demand is predicted to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, marking a 75 kb/d rise compared to previous forecasts, Trend reports.
Additionally, a growth of 1.1 mb/d is anticipated for 2025.
The upgraded forecast for 2023 places global oil demand growth at 2.3 mb/d, a significant increase of 150 kb/d from earlier projections. This uptick is primarily attributed to stronger data from China. However, it's noteworthy that China's demand growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to have slowed year-on-year to 1.3 mb/d from 2.4 mb/d in the second and third quarters of the same year.
For 2024, the increase in global demand growth is primarily driven by slight enhancements to the non-OECD outlook, which has been adjusted to 1.5 mb/d from 1.4 mb/d previously. Conversely, demand growth in OECD regions is expected to falter. Notable increases in demand growth are forecasted for China and India, rising by 90 kb/d to 650 kb/d and 30 kb/d to 220 kb/d, respectively. However, softer outlooks are observed in other regions, which offsets improvements seen in the OECD Americas.
Looking ahead to 2025, the trend of regional disparities in demand growth is projected to persist. The overall global demand growth is expected to soften to 1.1 mb/d. China is anticipated to remain the strongest growth contributor, with an increase of 340 kb/d year-on-year.
In terms of products, demand for the three major transport fuels - gasoline, jet/kero, and diesel/gasoil - is forecasted to normalize near the 2010-2019 average of 1 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025, compared to 1.4 mb/d in 2023. However, petrochemical (petchem) demand growth is predicted to surpass historical averages in both years, led by naphtha. Nevertheless, jet fuel demand is projected to lag behind 2019 levels by 800 kb/d in 2025.
This forecast indicates a nuanced picture of global oil demand, characterized by regional variations and changing patterns in product demand, ultimately shaping the trajectory of the oil market in the coming years.
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