Even if Armenian-Turkish protocols are ratified, documents will have a symbolic value: experts
Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept.28. / Trend E.Tariverdiyeva /
Even if the Armenian-Turkish protocols are ratified in the parliaments of both countries, the documents will have a symbolic significance, experts said.
Perhaps, the Armenian-Turkish protocols will be ratified, but they are unlikely to have specific content, because the talks aim not so much the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations, as the Turkish-Western, believes Azar Mursaliyev, Political Scientist, Chief Editor of the Russian Kommersant newspaper.
The Turkish prime minister says Turkey and Armenia will sign a deal to establish diplomatic ties on Oct. 10, Erdogan told Trend in an exclusive interview.
The deal would be signed by the countries' foreign ministers, but it must be approved by the countries' parliaments before taking effect.
According to observers, the ruling forces of Turkey and Armenia will face problems with the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in parliaments.
The adoption of this document is not important. Armenia does not have political will to complete this process. Turkey also does not intend to complete this. Definite process began to gain support of the U.S and France and neither Turkey not Armenia may complete this process, Chairman of the pro-opposition Great Establishment Party, Fazil Gazanfaroglu told Trend .
Approval of the agreement on establishment of the diplomatic relations with Armenia at the Turkish parliament is impossible, Gazanfaroglu said.
Approval of the final version of the Turkey-Armenia protocol, which will be signed between Ankara and Yerevan on Oct.10-11, by the parliament, will not be allowed, Canan Aritman, Turkish MP from the Republican People's Party (CHP) told Trend over the telephone on Sept.28.
"The signing of the protocol by the ruling AKP's and Armenia or steps to normalize bilateral relations will not change anything. Because, under the Turkish law, all signed official documents must be approved by the Turkish Parliament," the MP said.
According to Aritman, the Turkish parliament will not approve the signed protocol.
Not Turkey and Azerbaijan, but only Armenia is interested in establishing diplomatic relations with Armenia, the Mp added.
"This project, which Turkish government wants to implement, is a project of the United States and Europe to rescue Armenia," Aritman said.
However, many analysts believe that the protocols on the normalization of relations will not be ratified, probably in the Armenian parliament.
Theoretically, the Turkish parliament can ratify the agreement, but this process will be somewhat more complicated at the Armenian parliament, since there is alignment of forces is not so unambiguous, believes Mursaliyev.
In Turkey, the ruling party controls the parliament and has an absolute majority, but in Armenia - not the ruling party, but the ruling coalition, the expert said.
In his opinion, foreign policy in Armenia is used in the domestic political struggle, and such negotiations are always a convenient excuse to blame the enemy in betrayal of national interests.
These protocols contain several unacceptable provisions for the Armenian side, Chairman of the Armenian Democratic Party, Aram Sargsyan, said in an interview with Novosti-Armenia.
Therefore, many leaders of political parties expressed their concerns and suggestions on these protocols, particularly on the issue of editing the texts, at the meeting with President Sargsyan held on Sept.17.
According to Sargsyan, these protocols reflect several fundamentally unacceptable provisions for Armenia.
European Expert on Caucasus, Licinia Simao, believes the possibility of both Parliaments ratifying the protocols is the big question.
The objections on both countries to an agreement are known, and nationalist parties on both sides have said they will not ratify it.
Even the AKP party in Turkey, which the Prime-minister Recep Erdogan is leading, has still to make its position clear, having said that in principle, it will make ratification conditional on visible advances on the Nagorno Karabakh negotiations, Simao added.
"However, for Armenian leaders, opposition at home has also increased its voice, with former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan's party joining efforts for the moment with the nationalists Dashnaks to oppose the deal," member of University of Coimbra, Simao wrote to trend News in an e-mail.
President Sargsyan has also been consulting with Diaspora groups which traditionally have opposed any normalization of relations with Turkey without recognition of the genocide by the ottoman Turks.
The Armenian Republican party which does not have a majority in parliament will have to negotiate with other smaller parties, the expert said.
Even if both countries' parliaments ratify the Armenian-Turkish protocols, the documents will have symbolic significance, experts said.
Details are important in the case of establishing relations and signing of the Armenia-Turkey protocols is a question of interpretation, Mursaliyev said.
Why would not ratify the treaty, accompanied by certain excuses? On Oct. 10, any law-tricks could be invented to postpone the decision so that a dialogue will continue during Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Turkey on Oct. 14," said Mursaliyev.
"Although the process of ratification by the two parliaments might not be swift, the symbolic importance of having President Sargsyan travelling across the land border to attend the football match is high. This might mean that some agreement might be reached to allow this to happen as an exceptional situation," Simao said.
The Turkish Football Federation (TFF) determined the city which will host the return game of the national football teams of Armenia and Turkey in the qualifying round of World Cup 2010. The TFF announced that the match will take place at the Ataturk Stadium in Bursa on Oct. 14.
The first match of qualifying round, which was watched by Turkish President Abdullah Gul, was held in Yerevan on Sept.6. The Turkish team defeated Armenia with a score of 2:0.
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has already stated that he would go to football match only through the opened Armenian-Turkish border.
J.Babayeva and R.Hafizoglu contributed to the article.