BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 2
By Elchin Mehdiyev - Trend:
Provocations carried out by the Armenian military on the border with Azerbaijan have a serious impact on the formation of pre-election public opinion in Armenia, Azerbaijani political scientist Jeyhun Ahmadli told Trend.
“The results of a recent sociological poll in Armenia showed that 32 percent of respondents consider security to be the most pressing issue. Only 13 percent of those polled spoke about the importance of economic stability, despite the fact that the results of polls two months ago were exactly the opposite,” Ahmadli said.
He noted that the sharp change in public opinion is only because of incidents at the border.
“Apparently, the shameful situation, which the Armenian servicemen who committed the provocation found themselves in, as well as the fact that Azerbaijan will not give up even an inch of its land during the delimitation of borders, will have an impact to acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's electoral rating. So the current situation is beneficial to ex-President Robert Kocharyan and can create conditions for him to get more votes in the upcoming elections," Ahmadli said.
"Generally, the course of events shows that following the election results, the blocs of Pashinyan and Kocharyan will share the first and second places. It is assumed that the bloc of Pashinyan will gain about 30 percent of the votes, but will not be able to stay in power. If it does not come to the second round of elections, then Pashinyan will be forced to share power with Kocharyan, that is, agree to a coalition government, because there is no other alternative political force,” Ahmadli said.
According to the political scientist, the results of opinion polls indicate that political polarization is increasing in the Armenian society.
“Pashinyan is at one pole, Kocharyan is at the other. In reality, the Pashinyan-Kocharyan coalition government will not be able to be stable and remain in power for a long time. Thus, if this happens, a serious crisis of power is inevitable in Armenia, therefore it is possible that the second round of elections will be held on the initiative of Pashinyan," said the analyst.
"Today the Armenian people will have to choose the lesser of two evils. Neither Pashinyan, who came to power with slogans about democracy and human rights, nor Kocharyan, who previously ruled Armenia with criminal methods, can promise salvation to the people, and the Armenians understand this. Therefore, in all polls, the majority of respondents in Armenia declare that they do not believe any of these political forces, or have not yet decided who they will vote for in the upcoming elections,” Ahmadli said.
Early parliamentary elections in Armenia are scheduled for June 20.