BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 29. The West, aiming to reduce Russia's influence in the South Caucasus and diminish its leverage in the region, is utilizing Armenia as a strategic tool. However, the new project, which excludes Georgia and Azerbaijan from the process instead of fostering peace and stability in the region, might exacerbate the situation further.
April 5 marks a significant milestone in the geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus. On this date, a trilateral meeting involving the European Union, the US, and Armenia is scheduled to take place in Brussels.
The meeting will be attended by prominent figures such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Preliminary information suggests that the outcome of the Brussels talks will involve the signing of a document providing security guarantees to Armenia by the West. Essentially, this implies the establishment of a military-political agreement with Armenia.
At the same time, the agenda includes discussions on various subjects such as granting Armenia candidate status for EU membership, providing necessary funds to Armenia from the European Peace Facility (EPF), offering bilateral military-technical assistance from EU countries, conducting joint military exercises and training to enhance Armenia's defense capabilities, implementing security reforms, bolstering border control, extending membership to Armenia in the European Energy Union, enhancing guarantees for Armenia's food security, and initiating a new agreement for military-technical cooperation with the country.
The Brussels meeting isn't a spur-of-the-moment decision; discussions originated in October of last year during the 3rd European Political Community Summit in Granada, Spain. This summit, championed by French President Emmanuel Macron, served as the catalyst for the development of "extremely special" relations between the European Union and Armenia, evolving through negotiations with Azerbaijan.
At this summit, which was not attended by the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Türkiye, Emmanuel Macron, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, President of the Council of Europe Charles Michel, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz signed a joint statement against Azerbaijan.
The document demanded "full assurance of the return of Karabakh Armenians to their homes and their security" as well as "the immediate release of all Armenians arrested by Azerbaijan".
Thus, there was an attempt at gross interference in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan.
Following this, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held discussions with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The document finalized at the conclusion of their meeting "strongly condemned Azerbaijan's military actions against the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh" and outlined new avenues of partnership between the European Union and Armenia, along with the extent of assistance to Yerevan.
At the summit in Granada, it was agreed that the US and the EU would hold a joint meeting to support Armenia.
The main objective of the forthcoming summit in Brussels on April 5 is to remove Russia from the South Caucasus region rather than to increase pressure on Azerbaijan. Concurrently, the Armenian leadership, cautious and even apprehensive of Russia, is expected to receive abstract "security guarantees," further solidifying support for the Pashinyan administration as a potential ally.
Armenia finds itself in a delicate position as it navigates its relationship with Russia, hesitant to hastily reduce ties by withdrawing from organizations like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union to avoid potential repercussions from Russia.
The apprehension within Armenia is palpable, fueled by repeated warnings from Russian officials that maintaining a pro-Western stance could result in dire consequences, even endangering the nation's sovereignty.
Despite vocal support from the US and the European Union for Armenia's efforts to distance itself from Russia, specifics regarding the "security guarantees" they can offer remain undisclosed.
Washington and Brussels do not have the capacity for such means of assurance; there is only the option of direct deliveries of arms and military equipment to Armenia.
Furthermore, the Western powers, while advocating for a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia and aiming for regional stability without Russian involvement, view Russia as an unreliable partner. This sentiment extends beyond Armenia to encompass neighboring countries like Georgia and Azerbaijan.
However, should the West escalate its political and military-technical backing of Armenia, the already complex process of achieving peace in the South Caucasus will become significantly more challenging and potentially problematic.
The Western perspective often overlooks the harsh realities of intense geopolitical competition in the South Caucasus region.
Adding to these complexities, the upcoming meeting set for April 5 in Brussels introduces new risks into the equation.
While Washington and Brussels profess a desire to impartially and fairly mediate peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, their rumored plans to bolster Armenia's military and political capabilities, potentially through pressuring Azerbaijan, cast doubt on the neutrality of such mediation efforts.
Furthermore, any Western support for Armenia, particularly spearheaded by France, is likely to encounter staunch opposition from Russia and Iran. These regional powers are keen to maintain their traditional spheres of influence in the South Caucasus, which could exacerbate tensions in the area.
Russia clearly views the South Caucasus as its sphere of influence and seeks to limit Western geopolitical influence in the region. Hence, Russia will not be satisfied with a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered solely by the US and the European Union.
Russia confidently asserts that "peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is possible only within the framework of a trilateral statement reached with the participation of Russia," indicating its pivotal role in regional affairs.
The West aims to bolster its position in negotiations by increasing support for Armenia. However, Armenia's adoption of increasingly aggressive rhetoric and the imposition of new proposals and conditions during negotiations may complicate matters. Moreover, heightened Western military and political support for Armenia, along with efforts to rapidly rearm the country's army, could embolden revanchist factions within it, fostering the illusion of a "successful" military operation against Azerbaijan.
France's stance remains steadfast in its unwavering support for Armenia, reflective of Emmanuel Macron's consistent foreign policy approach towards the South Caucasus.
Nevertheless, the US and the European Union must recognize that providing Armenia with additional promises and support during the April 5 meeting in Brussels could indefinitely prolong the peace process in the South Caucasus.
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