The Azerbaijani government does not agree with the forecasts designed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in respect to the growth of the consumer price index to 12% in Azerbaijan in 2006, as it was noted in the IMF report publicized on 26 April. Oktai Hagverdiyev, the head of the Price, Economic and Credit-monetary Policy Department of the Cabinet of Ministers, said that as a result of anti-inflation measures, included in the presidential decree, it will be possible to achieve one-digit inflation which the government forecasts in the level of 9% this year.
Definite work is being carried out in this direction, the amount of securities is increased, POS-terminals are installed in the trading objects. Even the inflation in the level of 10.2% as a result of this year would be regarded as the good figure in current situation with macroeconomics, big oil revenues, the process of denomination (most prices turned out higher upon rounding), to be more exact owing to subjective and objective reasons. Besides, rise in inflation is caused by different reasons such as rise in world commodity prices. In connection with the rise in the world oil prices (over $75 per 1 barrel of oil), the wholesale prices of import goods will also increase, which respectively reflects on the prices of the import goods. At any case the government starting from the National Bank of Azerbaijan and the state bodies, are eager to take measures to avoid the undesirable results.
During the meeting with the head of the mission the IMF mission also voiced its concerns on the rise of inflation, while the conclusions by IMF experts did not have grounds. Such forecasts (double-digit inflation) are made unless Azerbaijan takes definite steps.
The IMFs forecasts on the growth pace of the Azerbaijani economy in 2006 in the level of 26.2% also do not coincide to our expectations. Though the forecasts for this year comprise 30%, Hagverdiyev still supposes that it will exceed this figure. The commissioning of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) main export oil pipeline scheduled for 13 July testifies for. In this respect it is planned to deliver big volumes of oil via the BTC which will lead to a double-growth of the oil sector, comprising 50%. Head of the division assures that rise of the non-oil sector will not be less than 11-12% against 10% in 2005.