BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 9. Brent crude oil spot price is expected to decrease from an average of $84/b in the second quarter of 2023 to $81/b in the fourth quarter, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
As for 2024 forecast, price is projected at an average $78/b.
"Although we expect global oil inventories will build throughout the forecast period, we expect that high demand for crude oil from refineries because of elevated refining margins will limit downward pressure on crude oil prices through the second quarter of 2023, as refiners maintain high levels of crude oil inputs to maximize distillate fuel production," the report said.
EIA noted that Russia used to be a key supplier of distillate fuel to Europe.
"Changes in distillate trade flows as Europe reduced imports of distillate from Russia in recent months have kept distillate fuel margins well-above five-year averages. However, we forecast that increasing global oil inventories will contribute to falling crude oil prices beginning in the third quarter of 2023," the report added.
Meanwhile, world oil demand is expected to increase to 100.9 million b/d in 2023, compared to 99.4 million b/d in 2022, at the same time, global liquids fuel consumption is set to grow by an additional 1.8 million b/d in 2024.