BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 18. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil supply will rise by an average of 690,000 b/d, reaching 102.9 mb/d, Trend reports.
The agency noted that OPEC+ has outlined a plan to gradually reverse its additional voluntary supply cuts of up to 2.2 mb/d from the fourth quarter of 2024 through the third quarter of 2025. The bloc has indicated that it may pause or reverse these production increases based on market conditions, prompting the IEA to adjust its OPEC+ supply estimates once decisions are confirmed.
As such, in 2024, the growth will be primarily driven by a 1.4 mb/d increase from non-OPEC+ countries. Quarterly supply forecasts for 2024 are as follows: 101.6 mb/d in the first quarter, 102.4 mb/d in the second quarter, 103.4 mb/d in the third quarter, and 103.8 mb/d in the fourth quarter.
Looking ahead to 2025, the IEA anticipates total global oil supply to increase by 1.8 mb/d, reaching 104.7 mb/d. This includes a 1.5 mb/d rise from non-OPEC+ countries and a 320,000 b/d increase from OPEC+. Quarterly projections for 2025 are: 103.6 mb/d in the first quarter, 104.4 mb/d in the second quarter, 105 mb/d in the third quarter, and 105.6 mb/d in the fourth quarter.
However, with oil demand expected to remain weak, the IEA cautions that supply adjustments may be necessary, potentially requiring reductions rather than increases next year.