BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 11. OPEC estimates a huge oil market deficit of 23 mb/d by 2030 if investment in the global upstream industry stopped today, said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, Trend reports.
Haitham Al Ghais emphasized that this drastic shortfall could severely disrupt critical sectors, from transportation to healthcare, and hamper global energy security. "The ensuing volatility would severely hamper key sectors like transportation, emergency services, construction, manufacturing, food production, healthcare and infrastructure, to name but a few," he said.
The concept of 'net zero' has become a central talking point in global energy and climate discussions, yet its meaning remains elusive to many. A UK government survey published in July 2024 revealed that while 91% of respondents had heard of net zero, only 17% fully understood it. Al Ghais noted that this lack of understanding is concerning, especially given the fact that 148 countries have set national-level, net-zero targets, covering 88% of the world’s population.
While many associate net zero with achieving an emissions-free world, Al Ghais clarified that net zero is not about eliminating hydrocarbons entirely. "Net zero means achieving a balance between the emissions that humans emit into the atmosphere and those that are removed," he explained. It does not mean "demonizing hydrocarbons" or rejecting emerging technologies like carbon capture and storage, which are essential for reducing emissions in industries that will still depend on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.
OPEC's analysis shows the world’s current and future energy demands will continue to rely heavily on oil and gas. "Suffice to say, net zero does not exist in a vacuum. It exists in a world where we expect global oil demand to exceed 104 mb/d this quarter – a new record – amid expected growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2025," Al Ghais pointed out. "It exists in a world where global natural gas consumption reached 'an all-time high' in 2024, according to the IEA, and it exists in a world where the same agency, despite predicting a peak in coal demand in 2014, recently reported record coal consumption of 8.7 billion tons in 2024".
OPEC estimates that by 2050, global energy demand will rise by 24%, driven by a growing population and expanding economies. "Oversimplified narratives framing renewables as 'good' and hydrocarbons as 'bad' in the name of net zero underline why real-world data and forecasting – not ideology – should drive policy formation, including when it comes to net zero and future energy pathways," Al Ghais added.
Despite these concerns, OPEC supports reducing emissions and is actively involved in the growth of renewable energy. "The Middle East is now the fastest-growing renewables market outside China," Al Ghais noted, highlighting how OPEC member countries, such as the UAE's Masdar and Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power, are playing a crucial role in the renewable sector. He emphasized that these efforts complement, rather than contradict, the continued role of OPEC's national oil companies in ensuring energy security and affordability.
