Forecasts for global economic growth in 2010-2011

Azerbaijan, Baku, June 8 /Trend, A.Badalova/

Despite events related to the debt problems in the Euro-zone, forecasts for world economic recovery remain fairly positive. But the fears about the vulnerability of the global economy still continue.   

Finance ministers and heads of central banks of the G20 countries at the summit, held last week, came to the conclusion that despite the rapid recovery, the world economy still remains vulnerable. The main threat to the world economy is represented by the growth of budget deficits in some countries, they said.

According to forecasts by OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), global economic growth this year will be 4.6 percent compared to 3.4 percent forecasted by the organization earlier. In 2011, the OECD expects growth in the global economy at 4.5 percent compared to 3.7 percent projected earlier. Faster recovery of the global economy takes place at the expense of economic growth in Asia. In particular, China's GDP growth is projected at the level of 11.1 percent this year.

According to the forecasts provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth will amount to 4.2 percent this year. According to IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the greatest threat to the recovery of the global economy is the European debt crisis.

Analysts of Capital Economics, one of the leading economic research consultancies in the UK, forecasts world economic growth in 2010 at 4.5 percent compared to 4 percent forecasted previously. However, according to the British analysts, the recent events in Europe give reason to think that next year's global growth will weaken again. Analysts forecast that global GDP growth in 2011 will be about 3.5 percent.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast global economic growth at 3.5 percent this year compared to 3.4 percent forecasted by it earlier. The GDP growth in the U.S. this year will amount to 2.8 percent, Japan - 1.5 percent, the Euro-zone - 0.6 percent, China - 9.5 percent, the organization predicts.

Analysts one of the largest U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley forecast Euro-zone economic growth at 0.9 percent in 2010 and 1.1 percent in 2011.

Forecasts for global economic growth in 2010-2011 (in%):

М - world economy

С - US economy

Е - Euro-zone economy