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American Consulting Association does not wait for oil peak by 2030

Oil&Gas Materials 20 November 2009 10:33 (UTC +04:00)
Global productive capacity is expected to average approximately 92 mbd in 2009, and to rise to 115 mbd by 2030, a report by the American Consulting Association of the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS CERA) stated. This is a lower growth rate than the IHS CERA projected in the past and reflects the oil industry's reaction to recent changing market forces.
American Consulting Association does not wait for oil peak by 2030

Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 19 / Trend A.Badalova /

Global productive capacity is expected to average approximately 92 mbd in 2009, and to rise to 115 mbd by 2030, a report by the American Consulting Association of the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS CERA) stated. This is a lower growth rate than the IHS CERA projected in the past and reflects the oil industry's reaction to recent changing market forces.

Fears about "running out" of oil are recurrent. At their strongest, they coincide with periods of high prices and a tight supply-demand balance. The latest such period of "peak oil" became evident from 2004 when a strong oil demand ran up against capacity constraints, the report said.

In contrast, IHS CERA's reference case for global liquid productive capacity shows growth through 2030.

Based on the forecasts of the U.S. State Energy Information Administration (EIA), the world's supply of liquid hydrocarbons will increase by 22 million bpd to 106.6 million in 2030, compared to 84.6 million in 2006. OPEC will ensure 40 percent of global supply by 2030.

According to IHS CERA estimates, residual world oil reserves will reach nearly 3.7 trillion barrels.

"Given the complexity of the calculations there are no unique answers on the individual field or global levels, and we still do not know exactly how much has been discovered or what remains to be found, despite any claims to the contrary," the report said.

Giant fields are still the cornerstone of global production, the report wrote. Some 548 giant oil fields contribute 61 percent of the total and although production from giants has risen the proportion has remained steady in recent years.

According to BP, the world's proven oil reserves in early 2009 were 1,258 billion barrels.

In 2008, global oil production was 81.82 million bpd, which is 0.4 percent more than the level of world output in 2007.

IHS CERA believes that unconventional liquids already contribute around 14 percent of total global capacity, and this share is expected to grow to 23 percent by 2030.

According to the EIA, non-traditional sources for 2006-2030 will provide roughly half the growth in global supplies of liquid hydrocarbons.

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