Azerbaijan, Baku, July 2 / Trend A.Badalova/
OPEC oil output will fall by roughly one million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2012 compared to current levels (about 31.6 million bpd), Energy Security Analysis (ESAI) analysts believe.
In their Global Crude Oil Outlook analysts said that the recent collapse in oil prices has only added to the pressure on OPEC to reduce its production in the coming quarters.
"WTI has recently fallen to levels below the price floor frequently cited by the Saudi oil minister as their new target. At current prices, the fiscal balance for Saudi Arabia and other leading OPEC producers will come under threat," analysts said.
According to the ESIA analysts' forecasts, OPEC oil output will amount to 30.9 million bpd in 2012.
In 2013 OPEC output is predicted to fall to 30.1 million bpd.
OPEC's oil output fall in June as Western sanctions have pushed Iran's supply to its lowest level in more than 2 decades, relegating the country to OPEC's third largest producer behind Iraq, Reuters reported. Supply from the 12-member OPEC has averaged 31.63 million bpd as the end of the month approaches, down from a revised 31.70 million bpd in May, the survey of sources at oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts found.
Last week Iranian oil minister Rostam Qasemi called for OPEC extraordinary meeting in response to oil prices falling below $100 per barrel, which he described as a "critical level."
On June, 14 OPEC decided to keep overall quota at 30 million barrels.
Following the auction on June 29, the price on Brent futures for August increased by $6.44 a barrel up to $97.8 per barrel. The cost of WTI futures for August on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by $7.27 percent to $84.96 per barrel.
ESIA analysts believe that the looming imposition of tough sanctions on Iran by the EU and the U.S. will likely trigger a round of speculative buying in the oil markets. Despite the relatively well‐supplied position of the fundamentals, concerns over future Iranian production will help to support Brent in the short term, they said.
Analysts predict that the WTI‐Brent discount should remain over $10 per barrel.
According to ESIA analysts' forecasts, Brent price will amount to $94.6 per barrel, while WTI price will amount to $84.6 per barrel by December, 2012.