BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.18
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 has been revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous month to stand at 27.2 mb/d, Trend reports with reference to OPEC.
This is 5.0 mb/d higher than in 2020. Demand for OPEC crude in the first two quarters has been revised down by 0.5 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively. The 3Q20 remained unchanged, while 4Q20 has been revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous monthly assessment.
When compared to the same quarters in 2020, demand for OPEC crude in 1Q21 and 2Q21 is forecast to be 5.5 mb/d and 10.9 mb/d higher, respectively. The 3Q21 is projected to show an increase of 2.8 mb/d y-o-y, while 4Q21 is expected to be higher by 0.7 mb/d y-o-y.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 has been revised up by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month to stand at 22.2 mb/d. This is around 7.1 mb/d lower than in 2019. Demand for OPEC crude in the first two quarters remained unchanged, while 3Q20 has been revised up by 0.4 mb/d. The 4Q20 is revised down by 0.1 mb/d, from the previous monthly assessment.
When compared with the same quarters in 2019, demand for OPEC crude in 1Q20 and 2Q20 is expected to be 8.4 mb/d and 12.2 mb/d lower, respectively. The 3Q20 shows a decline of 5.6 mb/d, while 4Q20 is expected to see a drop of 2.5 mb/d. According to secondary sources, OPEC crude production averaged 28.2 mb/d in 1Q20, which is about 7.5 mb/d higher than demand for OPEC crude. Graph 10 - 1: Balance of supply and demand, 2020–2021* In 2Q20, OPEC crude production averaged, 25.6 mb/d, which is 8.9 mb/d higher than demand for OPEC crude. In 3Q20, OPEC crude production averaged 23.8 mb/d, which is 1.0 mb/d lower than demand for OPEC crude.
World oil demand for 2020 is expected to decline by 9.77 mb/d, marginally lower than in last month’s assessment. Weaker-than-expected data in the OECD in 3Q20, mainly due to lower transportation fuel demand in the US and OECD Europe, led to a downward revision of around 0.18 mb/d for the OECD group. However, this is mostly offset by an upward revision to the non-OECD, by 0.16 mb/d. Better-than-expected oil demand in China, amid a steady recovery across various economic sectors, and improving oil demand from India support this upward revision. Total oil demand is estimated to reach 89.99 mb/d in 2020. For 2021, world oil demand growth is revised lower by 0.35 mb/d, to growth of 5.90 mb/d. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 and the labour market on the OECD transportation fuel outlook for 1H21. Petrochemical feedstock and industrial fuels are forecast to gain momentum on the back of improving economic activities, with total oil demand projected to reach 95.89 mb/d in 2021.
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