BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.2
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Solar and wind will dominate power systems in most regions within a few decades, Trend reports with reference to the Norway-based DNV GL company.
The company forecasts that from 2018 to 2050, solar PV capacity will grow 21-fold reaching 10 TW just before 2050, whilst installed wind capacity will increase ten-fold to 4.9 TW for onshore, 1 TW for fixed offshore and 255 GW for floating offshore wind.
“With improved technologies in solar tracking, bifacial solar panels, larger and taller wind turbines, and with investments in locations with better insolation and wind characteristics becoming financially feasible, the worldwide annual electricity output per unit capacity (capacity factor) will rise. According to our best estimate, solar and wind will provide 46 percent of the world’s electricity in 2040 and 62 percent in 2050. Solar PV and wind capacity additions in every decade will consistently exceed the previous decade until mid-century. The pace of expansion will be highest for both fixed and floating offshore wind, especially after 2030,” the company said in its report.
DNV GL noted that high renewables penetration will impact the operations of conventional thermal plants. “On the one hand, their operating hours decline since they cannot compete with zero-variable-cost solar and wind when there is enough sunshine and wind. On the other hand, the average price received by these technologies increases, because they operate only when solar and wind are unavailable and insufficient to meet demand, which are the hours with a high electricity price. So, over time, thermal generation technologies will transition to become complementary to renewables, rather than providing the base load.”
IEA data shows that renewable electricity generation in 2021 is set to expand by more than 8 percent to reach 8 300 TWh, the fastest year-on-year growth since the 1970s. Solar PV and wind are set to contribute two-thirds of renewables growth. China alone should account for almost half of the global increase in renewable electricity in 2021, followed by the United States, the European Union and India.
Renewable energy use increased 3 percent in 2020 as demand for all other fuels declined. The primary driver was an almost 7 percent growth in electricity generation from renewable sources. Long-term contracts, priority access to the grid, and continuous installation of new plants underpinned renewables growth despite lower electricity demand, supply chain challenges, and construction delays in many parts of the world. Accordingly, the share of renewables in global electricity generation jumped to 29 percent in 2020, up from 27 percent in 2019. Bioenergy use in industry grew 3 percent, but was largely offset by a decline in biofuels as lower oil demand also reduced the use of blended biofuels.
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