BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.20
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
For the next three years to 2024, global coal trade is expected to be stable, with thermal coal volumes declining 1.9 percent per year and met coal increasing 2.8 percent annually, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“Thermal coal trade will be altered as China and India – the world’s two largest importers – raise domestic production to reduce import reliance, and as the European Union, Japan and Korea reduce their coal-fired power generation. Conversely, we expect higher volumes of met coal to be traded because China and India – the countries with the highest consumption – cannot raise their domestic production substantially, and because met coal demand for steel production remains high globally,” IEA says in its latest report.
The agency analysts note that global coal trade dropped 11 percent from the record volume in 2019 to 1 298 Mt in 2020,10 with traded coal making up 17 percent of global coal consumption in 2020.
“While trade in thermal coal (which includes lignite and some anthracite in this section) decreased 11 percent, metallurgical (met) coal trade volumes (which account for one quarter of traded coal) also declined (-9 percent). The overwhelming majority of coal traded in 2020 (92 percent/1 183 Mt) was seaborne. In 2021, we expect trade volumes to recover by over 5 percent, or ~70 Mt, and thereafter remain below 2019 levels. For thermal coal, a volume increase of 7 percent is expected, while for met coal the same volume is traded as in 2020. In addition to rising exports from Indonesia (+9 percent), Russia (+6 percent) and Australia (+1.1 percent), those of the United States are expected to increase (+28 percent) as European import demand rebounds,” the report reads.
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