BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 14. Only half the pledged OPEC+ barrels will return to the market between April and September 2022, estimated at 1.3 mb/d versus 2.5 mb/d, Trend reports with reference to Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).
The OIES says in its report that by the OPEC+ deal exit in September 2022 the size of available spare capacity is seen falling to 2.4 mb/d and returning to the 2010-2019 average.
“Despite new delays facing the Iran nuclear negotiations, our Reference case assumes the return of Iranian crude in H2 2022 lifting production to 3.6 mb/d by year end. Despite elevated prices US growth constraints and upstream underinvestment elsewhere continue to weigh on total non-OPEC response and the supply outlook. Outside OPEC+, our more severe case of Russian supply disruptions sees additional supplies from non-OPEC as a response averaging 0.4 mb/d in 2022 and 0.3 mb/d in 2023,” reads the report.
The Institute notes that additional supplies from North America (namely the US and Canada) account for more than 75 percent of the total response in 2022, with NAM contribution falling to 69 percent in 2023.
“The US accounts for 60 percent or 0.28 mb/d of total non-OPEC crude response in 2022, but its contribution falls at 45 percent or nearly 0.1 mb/d in 2023 on growth constraints weighing on the US outlook. Investor pressure towards capital discipline, supply-chain bottlenecks and market uncertainty restrain US growth despite higher oil prices. US crude growth in Full curtailment reaches 1.2 mb/d in 2022 and 0.6 mb/d in 2023, vs the reference 1 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d, as growth prospects beyond 2022 remain limited. Outside the US, incremental increases from Canada, Brazil and Norway could reach 0.35 mb/d by 2023, but with the bulk of the gains coming later this year and the next,” OIES experts note.
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