BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 11. Oil markets are likely to be mostly balanced from 2Q22 through the end of 2023, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
EIA expects the Brent price will average $107/b in 2Q22 and $103/b in the second half of 2022 (2H22).
“We expect the average price to fall to $97/b in 2023. However, this price forecast is highly uncertain. Actual price outcomes will largely depend on the degree to which existing sanctions imposed on Russia, any potential future sanctions, and independent corporate actions affect Russia’s oil production or the sale of Russia’s oil in the global market. We completed this outlook on May 5, therefore it does not include an EU ban on oil imports from Russia. However, the bans being reported at the time of writing would likely contribute to tighter oil balances and higher oil prices than our current forecast. In addition, the degree to which other oil producers respond to current oil prices and the effects macroeconomic developments might have on global oil demand will be important for oil price formation in the coming months,” reads the latest report released by EIA.
The report says that 97.4 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in April 2022, an increase of 2.1 million b/d from April 2021.
“We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 99.6 million b/d for all of 2022, which is a 2.2 million b/d increase from 2021. We revised down our forecast for 2022 global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels by 0.2 million b/d from the April STEO, primarily as a result of downward revisions to consumption growth in China and the United States. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 1.9 million b/d in 2023 to average 101.5 million b/d,” says the EIA.
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