BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 28. The Central and Eastern Europe can be split into three groups based on the risk of shortages, Trend reports with reference to UK-based Capital Economics research and consulting company.
“The first contains those countries likely to experience only a mild hit to activity. Israel is now largely self-sufficient and may be drawn upon to export gas through Egypt to the EU. Croatia imports no gas from Russia. Romania consumes a lot of gas but produces all of it domestically. Turkey is a high-gas use economy but has the infrastructure to ramp up imports. Shortages are likely to be less severe and the main impact will be via higher energy prices,” reads the latest report released by Capital Economics.
The second includes some countries that will be hit hard. Poland and Bulgaria have had their gas supplies cut, Bulgaria’s gas stocks are low and both would be exposed to a European-wide supply squeeze. Industrial sectors in Poland and Bulgaria are also very energy intensive. That said, both countries could manage any disruptions, due to the high share of coal in energy use and the fact that both have large import infrastructure (in Poland, a 10bcm gas pipeline through Norway from January 2023 could offset Russian gas).
The third group contains those countries that are the most vulnerable. Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary are almost entirely dependent on Russian gas for their gas needs, their current gas storage is low, they have limited alternative import infrastructure, and have highly energy-intensive industrial sectors.
---
Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn