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Global oil production expectations shift for 2024-2025

Oil&Gas Materials 20 June 2024 17:06 (UTC +04:00)
Laman Zeynalova
Laman Zeynalova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 20. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES) has adjusted its global oil supply growth forecasts, lowering expectations for 2024 by 720,000 barrels per day (kb/d) to 370 kb/d, while raising forecasts for 2025 by 840 kb/d to 2.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), Trend reports.

This month's forecast incorporates recent agreements made on June 2 by OPEC+ and a group of eight OPEC+ producers, which involve extending voluntary cuts of 2.2 mb/d into the third quarter of 2024. These cuts are slated to be gradually phased out on a monthly basis from October 2024 through September 2025.

Under these agreements, the eight OPEC+ producers are expected to incrementally reduce their voluntary cuts by 550 kb/d in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by the remaining 1.9 mb/d throughout 2025. This development contrasts with previous assumptions of a complete return of the 2.2 mb/d cuts by the third quarter of 2024. Consequently, the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies has revised downward its forecast for OPEC crude growth in 2024 by 560 kb/d to -610 kb/d, while upgrading expectations for 2025 by 380 kb/d to 1.35 mb/d.

Meanwhile, growth projections for other non-OPEC crude, including Russia and non-OPEC+ countries, have been adjusted, with a decrease of 180 kb/d to -160 kb/d expected in 2024 and an increase of 270 kb/d to 440 kb/d anticipated for 2025. Specifically, Brazil's crude growth forecast for 2024 has been moderated to 100 kb/d due to production challenges in the second quarter related to FPSO issues and maintenance. However, an uptick to 280 kb/d growth is predicted for 2025, up from the previous forecast of 200 kb/d annually.

Additionally, global Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) growth estimates have been upgraded by 100 kb/d for both 2024 and 2025, now forecasted at 410 kb/d and 160 kb/d, respectively.

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