BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 31. Kazakh national currency (tenge) may stabilize in the second half of 2022, Trend reports with reference to the macroeconomic forecast of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
EDB noted that monetary policy will be aimed at reducing information risks.
"Tenge depreciation and inflation acceleration in March 2022 brought to the forefront the issues of financial stability. In this regard, it seems most likely that the monetary authorities will give priority to reducing inflation," EDB’s forecast said.
EDB estimates that moderate tight monetary conditions will be maintained in 2022. The base rate is expected to reach 12-14 percent during 2022. It may decline to 9-10 percent at the end of 2023 as inflation expectations stabilize.
It is allowed to further reduce, in the medium term, the base rate in order to form neutral monetary-credit conditions, EDB added.
"Tenge may stabilize in the second half of 2022. We expect an increase in export revenues in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, as the accident at one of the terminals of Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) is eliminated, and under favorable price conditions on the world oil market," the bank said.
"Imports are expected to grow more slowly as a result of restrained consumer demand, which could lead to a trade surplus," EDB added.