Azerbaijan, Baku, November 13 / Trend , V.Zhavoronkova, E.Ostapenko /
The probability of impact of instability in Afghanistan on the Central Asian states is unlikely, but the conflict situation in the neighboring country maintains them under threat, experts say.
Over recent months, the presence of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, which was formerly considered the most stable, has increased. Northern Afghanistan is border with the Central Asian states, namely Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Afghan provinces such as Kunduz and Balkh now experience violence by the Taliban, there are a large number of attacks on civilian and government facilities.
Observers say that instability in neighboring Afghanistan could affect the Central Asian states.
"There is indeed a threat of increased incidents where Taliban or other terrorist groups either look for shelter in Central Asian republics or try to create instability," Jos Boonstra, European expert on Central Asia, wrote to Trend in an e-mail.
The chance of a substantial spill-over of the conflict in Afghanistan to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is small, Boonstra, a Senior Researcher at FRIDE (a European Think Tank for Global Action), said.
Armed forces unit under the command of the U.S. overthrew the Islamist group Taliban in Afghanistan after the events of September 11, 2001, but the recent increase in violence in the country reached the highest level since the overthrow of the Taliban. Now, NATO troops are present in Afghanistan to combat terrorism.
Within the antiterrorist coalition, 56,000 U.S. military and 32,000 allied soldiers from 41 states serve in the country. The U.S. Administration has decided to increase the American contingent to 68,000 people. Of the Central Asian countries, Tajikistan experiences most threat, experts say.
Clearly Tajikistan faces the biggest threat in that sense due to its extensive border with Afghanistan that is difficult to control and due to the weak state status Tajikistan has, Boonstra said.
European expert on Central Asia Bruce Pannier believes that militants' infiltration into the country and the possibility of hiding in its territory indicates there are serious holes in the security network in eastern Tajikistan.
"That is not surprising since narcotic trafficking has been increasing through Tajikistan every year and the same routes the drug traffickers use can be used by militants," Pannier, expert at Liberty Radio, wrote to Trend in an e-mail.
According to him, there are reports that the militants are in fact often also the narcotics traffickers using the rugged mountains to their advantage to sneak in and out of Tajikistan.
According to experts, Uzbekistan is protected from terrorist threats more than Tajikistan.
Security services of Uzbekistan seem better equipped to deal with the treat of terrorism, Boonstra said.
According to experts, combating the threat of terrorism in the region is difficult for several reasons. The first of them is the instability in the government of Afghanistan.
According to the American expert on international security John D. Steinbruner, there will be good reason for the Central Asian countries to fear violence emanating from Afghanistan until stable, responsible government is established there, and that in turn will depend on inducing productive, legitimate economic development.
"Alas, that is likely to be the task of a generation or more and will depend on settling a very contentious issue; namely, the education of women," Steinbruner, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, told Trend in an e-mail.
It is estimated that 75% of the current population of Afghanistan is illiterate, he said.
According to Director of Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) Steinbruner, viable economic development and stable government cannot be achieved until a much more substantial portion of the population is educated to international standards, and that process will have to include women.
As another reason Boonstra considers the lack of coordination between the states of Central Asia.
"Regional cooperation in exchanging information between the Central Asian states would be the answer but is not in the cards since Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have tense relations (mostly over energy and water resources) while Turkmenistan persists in its self-chosen isolation," Boonstra believes.
Without home-grown regional cooperation, Central Asian countries rely on external cooperation initiatives such as through SCO, CSTO, NATO or the OSCE, he said.
According to the expert, for future reference it will be important to link EU, US and NATO (ISAF) initiatives in Afghanistan on border control and policing to programmes in Central Asia to counter drug traficking and terrorist movement.
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