Paul: There can’t be status quo in Karabakh conflict any more

Paul: There can’t be status quo in Karabakh conflict any more

Baku, Azerbaijan, Apr. 5

By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:

It is clear that there cannot be a status quo in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict any more, Amanda Paul, analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC), told Trend in email Apr. 5.

Something needs to change and change fast, she believes.

"Even if the current situation stabilizes, to talk about a functioning ceasefire is not realistic under the current conditions - and indeed never was - it was simply a ticking time bomb," added Paul.

The expert also said the situation is very serious in the zone of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

"This is the worst outbreak of fighting since the ceasefire came into force in 1994," Paul said.

She believes there is a very real risk that the conflict will escalate further still, as Armenia battles to take the positions that Azerbaijan has retaken and Baku pushes back against that.

"Hence a fully blown war, which would have devastating consequences for the region, cannot be ruled out," Paul added.

The analyst said the line of contact is now so militarized with heavy weaponry on both sides, including tanks, aircraft, drones and helicopters along with modern technology, that it creates a far more dangerous situation than in the past.

"The current situation requires the full attention of the international community, in particular the US and Russia," Paul said. "Coming at a time when Russian-US relations are in poor shape is not helpful, yet they need to put their differences aside and work together. Other regional players which have some influence - Turkey and Iran - may also take on a role."

"If the conflict explodes the price will be paid by the entire region, hence a unified approach is important," she added.

Paul noted that so far the Russians "have been the most-active in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict."

"While Russia uses the conflict for its own purposes, which is not helpful in terms of helping to bring about a solution or shoring up regional security, at the same time the Russian's do not want a fully blown war in the region," Paul added. "Rather Russia has been more comfortable with simmering conflict situations, which allow Moscow to project its power and influence in the region."

Paul believes there can be little doubt that ultimately Russia would like its own peacekeepers on the ground in Karabakh and this is apparently included in a new peace plan that that Moscow has been putting together.

"Yet history has shown that once Russian boots are on the ground, getting rid of them is difficult and often conflicts become even harder to resolve," added Paul. "Hence there is likely to be continued objection against this."

"What is very clear is that the current system of a tiny OSCE mission visiting the conflict area now and then and only after giving prior warning - even requesting permission from Azerbaijan and Armenia - is totally ineffective," said Paul.

The analyst said that unfortunately the renewed conflict seems to have left the EU paralyzed, unable to go beyond words of concern, which are simply not adequate for such a dangerous escalation right in the EU's backyard.

"Furthermore, if we compare the EU's reaction to the 2008 Russia-Georgia war to its reaction to the escalation over Karabakh there is a stark difference because in 2008 the EU acted swiftly, carrying out shuttle diplomacy and taking a lead in efforts to stop the fighting," added Paul.

"Today, the EU remains on the sidelines continuing to hide behind the OSCE fig leaf," she noted. "However, the OSCE has become more of a conflict manager than a resolver, and its role and influence has weakened over the years as the peace process has become stale and run out of steam."

"When there are long periods of time without an active peace process/settlement negotiation it serves to cement the status quo, which for Azerbaijan, in particular, is frustrating because it is their land that is occupied," said Paul.

"Not surprisingly, therefore, the status quo is far more acceptable for the Armenians," she added.

---

Follow the author on Twitter: @E_Kosolapova

Uzbekistan transfers funds to UN Trust Fund for Aral Sea region
Uzbekistan transfers funds to UN Trust Fund for Aral Sea region
Uzbekistan reveals its COVID-19 data for March 6
Uzbekistan reveals its COVID-19 data for March 6
Number of German enterprises in Uzbekistan increases in last four years
Number of German enterprises in Uzbekistan increases in last four years
Loading Bars
Latest
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for March 6
Uzbekistan transfers funds to UN Trust Fund for Aral Sea region
Turkish FM announces trilateral meeting between Azerbaijan, Turkey, Turkmenistan
Lybian diplomat harshly condemns Armenia using mosque in Azerbaijani Fuzuli as stable
Iran discusses relations with IAEA
Iran's nuclear activities completely peaceful - Rouhani
Who could say that Azerbaijan was wrong when the war started? - President Aliyev
New stage already evident in economic sphere, period of transparency, precision, when monopolies suppressed - President of Azerbaijan
As Commander-in-Chief, I know where our weaknesses are - Azerbaijani president
Today we are working on equal agreement with EU, it has been agreed by 90% - President of Azerbaijan
At new stage, we need to further deepen political dialogue - President Aliyev
Why are our “democrats” silent? Why aren’t they saying that Pashinyan should become example for us? - Azerbaijani president
Popular Front-Musavat ruined relations with almost all countries in just one year - Azerbaijani president
Azerbaijan today is country conducting large-scale reforms - President Aliyev
We have no problems with any political entity in country - President of Azerbaijan
If there were no outside help now, Armenia would be gone, completely - President Aliyev
If we are building road, asphalt is ours, bitumen is ours, gravel is ours, so why should we take external credits - Azerbaijani president
We never begged like Armenia, never humiliated ourselves, never asked anyone for help - Azerbaijani president
2003-2020 period was one of preparations - President Aliyev
Younger generation should know at what cost we were able to maintain independence - Azerbaijani president
Today Armenia shies away from cooperation, we will force them - President Aliyev
Absolute majority of participants in battles are people who were children when I came to power in 2003 - President of Azerbaijan
To put it mildly, Luxembourg does not have special political weight in world for its foreign minister to make any claims to us - President Aliyev
So many accused me – Ilham Aliyev does not want peace - Azerbaijani president
Hands of Popular Front-Musavat tandem were imbrued in blood of Azerbaijani people - President Aliyev
Country was in absolutely uncontrollable state during PFPA-Musavat tandem - President Aliyev
It is necessary to plan future of country in such way as to ensure long-term sustainable development - President Aliyev
I highly appreciate activities of “91”, for whom national interests were paramount at time - President Aliyev
Establishment of New Azerbaijan Party was necessity - President Aliyev
Heydar Aliyev's unambiguous, resolute steps related to independence were highly appreciated by people - President of Azerbaijan
Turkish investors have interest in Azerbaijan's business environment - Turkey's MUSAID
We turned Azerbaijan into country enjoying great authority, respect in international arena - President Aliyev
We are a country that creates realities - President of Azerbaijan
Program I announced after presidential elections is being implemented, we are consistently achieving our goals - President Aliyev
Many important events taken place in life of country in three years since sixth congress of New Azerbaijan Party - President Aliyev
Reps of diplomatic corps in Azerbaijan visit Fuzuli airport's construction area
Uzbekistan reveals its COVID-19 data for March 6
U.S. Embassy Announces 2021-2023 GIPA Master’s Degree Program in Journalism
Georgia reports 355 new cases of COVID-19 cases for March 6
Azerbaijan shows footage from Zangilan's Garadere village (VIDEO)
Democrats advance Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 bill in marathon Senate session
President Ilham Aliyev congratulates Azerbaijani women on International Women's Day
Iran's Revolutionary Guard has disrupted airplane hijacking attempt
Diplomats accredited in Azerbaijan start visits to liberated lands (PHOTO)
Iranian currency rates for March 6
Azerbaijani Nakhchivan's Separate Combined Arms Army holding live-fire training classes (PHOTO/VİDEO)
Azerbaijani Agency for Development of SMEs continues to support self-employment program
COVAX delivers over 20 mln doses of COVID-19 vaccines to 20 countries - WHO
Interest-free funding regulation may boost Turkey's home sales
Iran records 0.8% economic growth under sanctions, pandemic
2021 Index of Economic Freedom: Georgia 12th in world and 7th in Europe
Electricity consumption in February amounted to 1.6 bln kWh in Kyrgyzstan
Chinese investors have major potential for attracting cargoes to Georgian Anaklia seaport
Belgium announces phased plan to ease COVID-19 restrictions
More than 20,000 U.S. organizations compromised through Microsoft flaw
U.S. detained nearly 100,000 migrants at Mexico border in February
Number of German enterprises in Uzbekistan increases in last four years
Spike in Canada exports to U.S. leads to surprise January trade surplus
Brazil working with Biden on climate, Amazon deforestation - foreign minister
Luxembourg ratifies protocol on tax agreement with Russia
U.S., Britain announce 4-month tariff suspension in aircraft subsidy dispute
Aeroflot to make flights to Seychelles from April 2
Kazakh MFA talks great importance of developing relations with Turkic-speaking countries
Georgia expands list of countries from which tourists can travel to country
Iran to hold talks with EAEU soon
Pfizer vaccine to arrive in Georgia in the week of March 22 - seputy health minister
Turkey registers more than 11 302 new coronavirus cases
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan ink agreement to step up cooperation in healthcare
Wind energy replaces coal as Germany's biggest energy source in 2020
National Bank of Kazakhstan adopts several anti-crisis measures during COVID-19 pandemic
Azerbaijani FM, head of Baku office of CE exchange views on development of new action plan for cooperation (PHOTO)
Norwegian company discloses amount of investments made in Azerbaijan
BSEC countries discuss impact of pandemic on tourism sector
Azerbaijan’s AzerGold, Chem Trade company sign contract
Georgia-Ireland Council to be important chain for strengthening bilateral economic relations
Uzbekneftegaz, Uzbek-Chinese JV talk prospects for co-op in oil, gas industry
Russia's Rosselkhoznadzor discloses volumes of agricultural products supplied to Georgia
World Bank may support Azerbaijan in fight against COVID-19
Azerbaijan names volume of compulsory non-life insurance market in Jan.2021
Swiss plan free coronavirus tests for population
Liberated Azerbaijani lands have great potential in winemaking
Azerbaijan may apply quarantine measures if COVID-19 infections continue to increase
UK watchdog looks to 'open banking' apps to help boost competition
Georgian mobile operators see decrease in total revenues for 2020
Georgia plans to build hanger in Telavi airport for private jets
Chevron to buy out Noble Midstream in all-stock $1.32 billion deal
Azerbaijani State Security Service shares grief of death of Turkish servicemen
Azerbaijan eyes to start employment promotion activities in liberated areas
Armenia once again demonstrates that it is far from sound thinking - Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry
Initiated by Mehriban Aliyeva, Heydar Aliyev Foundation makes new contribution to protection of world and religious heritage in Vatican (PHOTO)
Azerbaijan's MoD shares footage from Aghdam's Taghybayli village (VIDEO)
Kazakhstan offers Uzbekistan to consider launching production of Kazakh COVID-19 vaccine
Mehriban Aliyeva appointed as first deputy chairperson of New Azerbaijan Party
First website of sign language dictionary to be developed in Azerbaijan
Trans-Caspian Fiber Optic Cable Project discussed at “Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan: New Opportunities for Cooperation” event (PHOTO)
Turkey’s activity on Turkmenistan’s state commodity exchange in Feb. 2021
Iranian parliament approves increase of salaries
Baku International Sea Trade Port expanding co-op with in Netherlands
Azerbaijan's internet provider eyes to expand coverage of communication services
Trade takes up largest share in total turnover of Georgia's business sector
All news