BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 15. The total oil supply from OPEC+ is expected to increase slightly in 2025 to 50.05 mb/d from 49.83 mb/d projected for 2024, including condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs), Trend reports.
The International Energy Agency reveals that OPEC+ countries, totaling 22 members, increased crude oil output by 80,000 b/d to reach 41.7 mb/d in March. This rise was primarily fueled by increased production from the Middle East. Despite promises to improve compliance and compensate for excessive supply in the first quarter of 2024, Iraq and Kazakhstan continued to pump above their targets, the agency explains.
According to the IEA, the UAE remained the largest overproducer, with output from the 18 countries under quotas exceeding an implied ceiling of 34.3 mb/d by 500,000 b/d.
Among OPEC's 12 members, production increased by 110,000 b/d to 27.05 mb/d, while the 10 non-OPEC nations saw a slight dip of 30,000 b/d to 14.65 mb/d. This resulted in an effective spare capacity of 5.7 mb/d for the group, with Saudi Arabia contributing 55 percent of the buffer.
Looking ahead, in 2025, Saudi Arabia anticipates growth of around 80,000 b/d, primarily due to the development of the Jafurah unconventional gas field. Kazakhstan could see a boost of approximately 70,000 b/d if the Future Growth Project at Tengiz starts up next year. Russian supply is also expected to gradually increase following significant production cuts in the second quarter of 2024.