BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov. 4
Trend:
The net export of primary energy resources from Kazakhstan, about 80 percent of which accounted for oil, decreased by 5.6 percent to 89.2 million tons in 2020 due to the turmoil in the global oil markets as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trend reports with reference to the IHS Markit forecast.
According to IHS Markit forecasts, the net export volume will decline in 2021, afterward, it will increase in 2022 and starting from 2025 it will again exceed the level observed before the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the main scenario, the export volumes of primary energy resources will reach a maximum level (104 million tons) in 2025 and will decline to 56.1 million tons in 2050 during the remaining forecast period.
As a result, the net indicator of a decrease in the export volume of primary energy resources will reach 37.1 percent in 2021-2050, which has been stipulated by a decrease that is expected in a long-term perspective in almost all export categories.
So, according to the main scenario, oil export will reach the maximum level (80.2 million tons) in 2035, afterward, it will decrease to 52.6 million tons in 2050; coal export will decrease to 5.5 million tons in 2050 and Kazakhstan will turn from an exporter in a gas importer in early 2040s.
The forecast that Kazakhstan will become a gas importer in early 2040 has been based on assumptions about the growth of demand for it (partially due to the acceleration of the transition from coal to gas in the electric power industry) taking into account slowly growing commercial gas production in the country in the long term prospect.
On the other hand, the export flow of primary electricity will slightly increase during the forecast period, but its volumes will remain small (about 0.1 million tons per year).
One of the few positives during the COVID-19 pandemic was the continued decline in the energy intensity of the Kazakh economy, which is a long-term trend that has been observed since 1991.
The energy intensity which is measured in tons of oil equivalent which are consumed to produce $1 million of GDP (in 2005 real dollar terms) declined in Kazakhstan by 0.1 percent to 356.6 tons in 2020 (for the period from 2000 through 2020, the total decrease in energy intensity was 37.7 percent).
Kazakhstan continues to show relatively high levels of energy intensity globally, but it is expected to make more progress in this sphere over the forecast period than earlier. The energy intensity is expected to decrease by 55 percent to 160.7 tons in 2021-2050.