BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 24. The long-simmering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have erupted into full-scale conflict, triggering significant fluctuations in global oil prices, according to Janiv Shah, Vice President of Oil Markets Analysis at Rystad Energy, Trend reports.
On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a large-scale military offensive targeting more than 100 Iranian nuclear and military sites, including key facilities in Natanz and Khondab, as well as senior figures in Iran’s military leadership. The operation marks a critical escalation in the Israel-Iran confrontation that has been building for months.
Following the attacks, Brent crude prices spiked to nearly $78 per barrel, briefly stabilized around $75, and then fell to $70 after Iran retaliated with a missile strike on Doha.
“The geopolitical risks that have loomed over the Middle East for months have now fully materialized, prompting a rapid repricing in the oil market,” Shah noted. “We expect high volatility in the near term as the full scope of the damage and Iran’s strategic response becomes clearer.”
A major point of concern for global energy markets is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which nearly 15 million barrels of oil per day—about a third of the world’s seaborne crude exports—pass. Any prolonged disruption could have severe consequences, particularly for Asian markets, which account for approximately 80% of the crude that moves through the strait.
“If Iran’s counterstrike is interpreted as a move toward de-escalation, the strait may remain open,” Shah said. “However, if tensions persist and the Strait of Hormuz is impacted, we expect any closure to be brief, though the ripple effects on global supply chains would still be significant.”
In the event of a disruption, rerouting oil through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could offer a partial solution, but available capacity and broader OPEC+ coordination will determine its effectiveness. Meanwhile, weakened Qatari LNG exports to Europe could lead to higher diesel cracks as markets switch to alternative fuels.