BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 23. The statements that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made a few days ago literally blew up Armenian society. To be precise, the Armenian PM publicly and officially stated that Yerevan expects mutual recognition of territorial integrity with Azerbaijan within the borders of 1991, which means based on the administrative division of the USSR at that time.
Obviously, this implies Armenia's recognition of the territory of the former NKAO [Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast] as an integral part of Azerbaijan, which Pashinyan did not deny.
The Armenian PM's words caused great resonance in the country. The opposition started to accuse Pashinyan of betraying "national interests", and about the same thing, only generously diluted with obscene epithets, was broadcast on social networks.
Meanwhile, Pashinyan made - or, rather did not make - one deliberate proviso, which makes it clear that what he said is not an acknowledgement of historical truth and new regional realities, but part of the game that he is going to play. Pashinyan is ready to officially recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and sign any document where it is prescribed, but only with the condition of fixing the area of Armenia's territories. Pashinyan has claimed dozens of times, like a mantra, that Armenia's territory is 29,800 square kilometers, which hints at the game he had started.
Having fixed the territorial integrity of Armenia in that very square, Pashinyan hopes to "close" the project of the Zangazur corridor, which is why he is so actively talking about the readiness to mutually recognize territorial integrity.
The Armenian PM hopes that in this way he will be able to finally "win" the debate over the Zangazur corridor. The plan is simple: if Baku signs an agreement in which it recognizes the territorial integrity of Armenia on an area of those same 29,800 square kilometers, then Armenia is going to disrupt any negotiations on the Zangazur corridor, referring to this very peace agreement! This way, they will have an opportunity to say that "Azerbaijan has recognized our territory, including the part through which the Zangazur corridor passes, as ours". And thus, "talking about its special status is meaningless."
Certainly, the naive Pashinyan believes that Yerevan will refer to the trilateral statement in order to answer the objections from Baku about the Lachin-Khankendi road and that Russia may help in some way there (hope for the elders is a signature move of the spineless Armenian foreign policy).
Perhaps, Pashinyan thinks that his plan is, if not brilliant, then very outstanding. And everything would be fine if not for one thing: Armenia will have absolutely nothing to oppose Azerbaijan in response to the establishment of a checkpoint at the entry to the Lachin-Khankendi road.
Moreover, Azerbaijan will be able to outplay Pashinyan with his own moves. Nikol Pashinyan, did you sign the recognition of the territory of Armenia, which covers an area of 29,800 square kilometers? Well done! And is your signature also under the 86,600 square kilometers of Azerbaijan? Well, that's all.
Recognizing Azerbaijan's territorial integrity within the borders of 1991 will put an end to Armenian attempts aimed at gaining some kind of exclusive status for the Lachin-Khankendi road without being tied to the Zangazur corridor. The peace treaty between the two countries will render all trilateral statements irrelevant; it will no longer be possible to refer to them.
And if Pashinyan is really ready to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, then he will inevitably have to sign the recognition of Azerbaijan's jurisdiction over the Lachin-Khankendi road without specifying its special status.
And this means that when Baku establishes a checkpoint at the entrance to this road, all Yerevan's objections will be crossed out by Pashinyan himself. And yesterday's provocation in the Shusha district, when Azerbaijani military blew up on an Armenian-set mine, makes the establishment of such a checkpoint a matter of time.