Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 4 / Trend I.Khalilova /
The current situation in the international currency market has led to a gradual appreciation of the euro against the Azerbaijani currency, and this week was marked by its maximum rate since the beginning of 2012 - 1.0372 manat to one euro.
However, by the end of the week rate of euro against the manat began to fall again, reaching 1.0325 manat to euro on Friday. The lowest figure in 10 years was recorded on January 16, 2012 - 0.9943 AZN per euro. This situation accounts for the fact that 2012 began with a significant depreciation of the European currency in the world currency market. The rate of euro to the dollar fell to its lowest level in 16 months, and to the Japanese yen - even to a minimum of the past 11 years.
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) told Trend, if the central bank adjusts the rate of manat to dollar depending on the inflation processes in the country, the euro exchange rate is calculated on the basis of cross-rate. From this point of view, the rate of the manat against the European currency varies depending on the processes in the international currency market.
"However, in recent years, taking into account the processes in the global foreign exchange market, in particular peculiarities of economic processes in the euro area, even an approximate prediction of the manat against the euro has become almost impossible," the CBA said.
According to RIA Novosti, rate of euro against the dollar in currency trading on Friday after the publication of strong data on business activity in the euro area has grown, but the strengthening of the European currency is hampered because of investors' fears that Greece wouldn't receive necessary for repayment of debt obligations money on time and will be forced to announce default.
Speculation about the role of the European Central Bank and the Euro Area governments in resolving the debt problem in Greece continues to exert pressure on the euro.
On Thursday, Wall Street Journal with reference to sources close to the negotiations said that the Greek government and investors have largely agreed on the parameters and are ready to sign a partial agreement on debt restructuring of the country - however differences between the International Monetary Fund and the German authorities keep them from this.
According to analysts, data on unemployment in the U.S. in January will have a short-term impact on the dynamics of the main currency pair. According to experts of information-analytical portal dailyFx.com, the unemployment rate in the reporting month remained at around 8.5 percent. The number of jobs in non-agricultural industries increased by 150,000 after rising by 200,000 a month earlier.
"The dollar may limitedly respond to a report on unemployment, if the U.S. companies increased their number of jobs (in non-agricultural industries) less than 100,000," MarketWatch quotes director's commentary on the global research GFT Forex Kathy Lien as saying.
According to the forecasts of the Azerbaijani government, the rate of the manat against the euro in 2012 is expected to be 1.091 manat per one euro against the expected in 2011 1.0939 manat (according to the CBA at the end of the year exchange rate was 1.0178 AZN). In 2013 the rate is projected at 1.0608 manat, in 2014 - 1.0430 manat and in 2015 - 1.0387 manat.
The Government of Azerbaijan in 2012 for the first time included a forecast of the average annual rate of national currency against the euro in the concept of socio-economic development. Typically, forecast of average exchange rate of manat against the dollar was fixed in the budget package and against the European currency they were prepared on a formal basis, the government of the country said.
Forecast of average annual rate of national currency against the U.S. dollar until 2015 remains unchanged - at 0.79 manat as in 2011.
As it can be seen the government preserves stability with respect to the forecast of the dollar and predicts a gradual appreciation of the manat against euro.