Azerbaijan, Baku, 28 August/ Trend , E. Tariverdiyeva, V. Zhavoronkova/ Russia's recognition of independence of two breakaway regions of Georgia will hardly cause serious changes in the policy of European Union toward Moscow, first of all, because of the energy dependence of Europe on Russian fuel.
"The relationship between Russia and the EU remains somewhat neutral. French and German dependency on Russian gas and oil is undoubtedly important in this diagram," said Tomoyuki Hashimoto, the European expert.
On 26 August, the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev decreed to recognize independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia following the outbreak of conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia.
The French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other EU and US officials condemned Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Experts believe that the European states that condemn Russia's actions toward the self-declared regions of Georgia will not aggravate relations with Moscow as they understand their dependence on Russian fuel.
At present, Russia supplies about 30% of gas consumed by Europeans. The demand of Georgia for Russian gas makes up 40%, Poland and Bulgaria - 65%, Hungary - 70%, and Czech Republic - 80%. Austria, Slovakia and states import gas completely from Russia.
Amanda Akcakoca, European expert on Caucasus, the energy dependence of Europe enables Russia to recognize independence of Georgia's breakaway regions not fearing EU sanctions. The future will show the forecast of Moscow will come true. " Russia remains extremely confident that it has the West in a corner and that the West simply cannot afford to freeze relations with Russia," Akcakoca, analyst on political issues and fellow of Programme Executive in European Policy Centre.
Hashimoto, expert at the World Association of International Studies at Stanford, for the EU, there is not many alternative providers - the Middle East is either chaotic or under the US control, and Latin America such as Venezuela does not like the US and thus indirectly Europe. "As the international resource market is getting more competitive due to China and India, the Russo-European relationship has to be cooperative regardless of the political rhetoric," he said.
Arnold Kammel, the European expert, Russia clearly wants to indicate that there are only two possibilities for the West in the future: containment or cooperation. "If the EU wants to cooperate it will inevitably have to take into consideration that also Russia wants to set the rules of such cooperation," Kammel, professor of European Security Institute said to Trend .
He believes at the next European Summit taking place on 1st September, European heads of states and government will have to define a new position towards Russia. It might even occur that the negotiations concerning a new framework and partnership agreement will be suspended.
Sergey Markov, the Russian expert said EU wants peaceful resolution of the conflict, but it also has its demands for Russia. "They do not want Russia to militarize and they fear Russia will continue to solve problems in post soviet space as in case of South Ossetia," Markov said.
According to Markov, EU will insist that the issue of recognition of separatist regimes will be solved only by them and they will not allow others, for instance Russia, to control this issue.
Well-aware of the trap EU has been caught up Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian fuel.
On 27 August, UK Foreign Secretary David Milliband held a meeting in Kiev with the Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and called Europe to make every effort to reduce dependence on Russia, RIA Novosti reported.
"We should change balance concerning Russia and Europe in the sphere of energy," Milliband said in his speech.
"We need diverse, insecure and mobile sources of gas. Europe should take unified measures when dealing with Russia. We will reduce our dependency from gas, increase efficiency of energy consumption, contribute to the production of coal and technology for keeping coal and it development into atomic energy," UK minister said.
He said Russian will retain its main role in the energy security system of Europe. "But changes in the trade terms means that we should rely on gas less, especially on that of Russia," Head of Foreign Office said.
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