Obama’s Administration not to Withdraw Troops from Iraq, but to Reduce Their Number

Politics Materials 10 November 2008 21:33 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, 10 November /corr. Trend U.Sadikova / The decision by U.S. President elected Barack Obama to withdraw American troops from Iraq will soon limit with the reduction of the American contingent. If after five-year military operations, the USA immediately withdraws the troops, this will break the policy of security of Baghdad, and strong blow will be brought to the international image of the USA, experts said.

"The USA put too much money and soldier in Iraq. The economic and political dependence of Iraq on the USA shows that the role of Washington remains important in the Middle East," Saleh Kaabi, Iraqi political scientist, told Trend by telephone from Baghdad.

During his pre-election campaign, now U.S. President elected Barack Obama made the question on withdrawal of the American troops from Iraq as one of the key moments. John Podest, one of the heads of the transitional team of Obama in the White House, said that being at the post of the President, Obama intends to adhere to this plan on withdrawal of all combat subdivisions of the USA from Iraq by mid 2010, CCN reported.

"The USA needs to cease expending $10bln on the realization of operation in Iraq. And we must give up this, attaining security and stability in the country," Podest said to press conference on Monday.

In spite of the statement by Obama regarding withdrawal of forces from Iraq, this is impossible for both countries, since in this case the Iraqi groups of opposition will more greatly enlarge their activity, and an increase in the acts of terror is possible.

Only this morning, 31 people died and ten were wounded in Baghdad as a result of a number of acts of terror.

Furthermore, in the case of withdrawal of forces, serious blow can be brought to the American Forces, and Washington will finish its military campaign without result.

"Obama's words on withdrawal of the forces can become reality if the government of Nouri al-Maliki is able to create the Supreme Security Council and determine its borders with the neighboring Arab countries and Turkey. Otherwise, the stability can not be topic of discussions," Jason Gluck, expert of American Institute of Peace, told Trend by telephone from Washington.  

Also the influence of the acting U.S. President George Bush on Obama's decision to withdraw the troops from Iraq is not excluded. The Republicans, which include Bush, oppose the withdrawal of forces irrespective of the dissatisfaction of American people with war in Iraq.

Obama's emphasis on Iraq was a reflection of the general mood in the country, where most Americans think that the Iraq war was a mistake and should be reversed, Ramzy Baroud, independent Arab analyst, said. He said that therefore, there is nothing surprising that Obama now refuses to withdraw the troops, presenting this step as contradicting to the security of Iraq

"Iraqi government knows that Obama's coming to power will lead to the changes in the internal and foreign policy of the USA, but this will not affect Iraq," said Iraqi expert Kaabi.

Five-year war placed Iraqi security in the dependence on the American forces, and it will be difficult to image the forces of Baghdad without the support of the USA, expert considers.

Therefore, the USA can use weakness of the security forces of Iraq for the prolongation of the period of stay of the American troops, to which the new President Barack Obama can also refer.

"There is a huge difference between what candidates say during campaigning, and the real policies they carry out once they are in power. Barack Obama's choice of words regarding Iraq has changed during the campaign, where he spoke of complete withdrawal in the early months, and then downgraded the expectations to gradual withdrawal that leaves an unspecified number of troops," Baroud told Trend via e-mail. 

He considers that Obama will certainly carry out some steps in Iraq to detach himself from Bush's war policies, but the extent and worth of these steps will be determined by many factors, including US regional interests, and pressures of many groups.

Jonathan Paris, an expert of the Landon based branch of the American Institute of Hudson, considers impossible to withdraw the U.S. troops from Iraq immediately, the process will be real only in 2010. For this purpose, the U.S. military contingent should be reduced gradually, and so the security control will be transferred to the Iraqi Government.

"The most depend on of local authorities bodies, would they like to govern the 'unstable' Iraq without the aid of the U.S," Paris told Trend via a telephone.

The official Bagdad has demeaned Washington to leave Iraq to 2012, CNN reported.

Therefore, the ceasefire statements by Barack Obama in Iraq will unlike take place soon. The most optimal version, both for Washington and Bagdad is to reduce the American contingent within three years term.

The U.S military campaign in Iraq was launched in March 2003, and led to oust Saddam Hossein's regime. The main reason of the military operations became the statements by Pentagon about the availability of mass destruction weapon in Iraq. The statements were failed to prove. During five years, Iraq turned to one of the bloodiest and unstable countries in the Middle East.

According to the U.S. Defense Ministry, Pentagon lost 3,988 soldiers and officers, the PRIME-TASS reported. The medical Lancet magazine publicized a new investigation by a group of scientists. Under the investigation the number of died population in Iraq reaches 655,000.

The number of Iraqis, forced to leave their houses was about four million

The correspondent can be contacted at: [email protected]