BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 17. Iran’s crude oil exports saw a significant dip in January, dropping by 80,000 barrels per day (kb/d) to 3.31 million barrels per day (mb/d), marking the lowest level in six months, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
Despite the ongoing rounds of sanctions, Iranian crude loadings stayed within its expected export range for 2024. However, this was the second consecutive month of decline, with January seeing a drop of nearly 140 kb/d.
In contrast, LPG exports saw a notable increase, rising by 90 kb/d to over 390 kb/d. This uptick comes as additional US sanctions were implemented in January and February, targeting more vessels from Iran's "dark fleet". These sanctions aim to curb Iranian oil exports by blocking vessels that, along with previously sanctioned ships, were responsible for transporting more than 42% of Iran's seaborne crude in 2024, which amounts to nearly 660 kb/d.
Despite these challenges, the path forward for Iranian oil flows remains closely tied to China, which has become by far the largest importer of Iranian crude. Before the imposition of US-led sanctions in 2018, OECD countries and India made up 65% of all Iranian crude buyers. In 2024, China now accounts for at least three out of every four barrels of Iranian crude on the market, solidifying its dominant role in Iran’s export market.