BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 12. The United States is expected to see a modest increase in electricity demand this summer, driven by surging commercial and industrial use, despite steady household air conditioning needs, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
The EIA forecasts total U.S. electricity generation will rise by 1%, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh), between June and September compared to the same period in 2024. While the number of cooling degree days—an indicator of demand for air conditioning—is expected to remain roughly the same as last year, rising demand from the commercial sector, particularly from data centers, is expected to push overall consumption higher.
"Strong load growth forecasts from key grid operators like ERCOT in Texas and PJM in the Mid-Atlantic have prompted us to raise our commercial sector electricity demand projections," the EIA noted.
In contrast to higher overall demand, the share of electricity generated by natural gas-fired plants is forecast to decline. The EIA expects natural gas generation to drop by 3% (23 BkWh) compared to last summer, due largely to elevated natural gas prices and a significant expansion in solar capacity.
Solar power continues its rapid ascent in the U.S. energy mix. The EIA projects solar generation to increase by 33% this summer, or 30 BkWh, as more utility-scale projects come online. Meanwhile, improving hydrological conditions in the western U.S. are expected to drive a 6% increase (5 BkWh) in hydroelectric generation.