BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.8
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Oil and gas demand will post modest gains in 2021, in particular during H221 as the global roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines will see energy consumption rebound in parallel with the global economy, Trend reports with reference to Fitch Solutions.
“We forecast growth of 4.1 percent for fuel demand in 2021, a gain of 3.6mn barrels per day (b/d) but well below the decline of 6.1mn b/d that we estimated for 2020. The start of 2021 may see some rough patches continue, with the current regime of increased lockdowns in several advanced economies enacted in response to second and third waves of infection,” the company said in a report.
Fitch Solutions expects that 2021 will be a year of two halves, with the bulk of demand returning in the second half of the year as Covid-19 vaccines become more widespread.
“The differing timing of vaccine adoption, with developed markets seeing the vaccine earlier in 2021 than most emerging markets, will see fuel demand rebound at varying rates by region. Changes to traditional patterns of fuel consumption will also play heavily in paring back the recovery during 2021. The potential for work-from-home changes to be more permanent could see sustained lower fuel demand as commuting patterns change. We expect higher jet fuel consumption in 2021 as more countries open cross-border routes,” reads the report.
The company believes that lower levels of air travel will still be seen in 2021, although the sector will begin to return to normal.
“Domestic air travel will likely return to pre-Covid-19 levels sooner than international travel, with consensus expectingpre-Covid-19 levels to return in 2024. We anticipate investment in oil and gas to rebound slightly in 2021 as oil prices continue to increase above the nadir in 2020, supporting increased production on renewed confidence for a sustained recovery in demand,” reads the report.
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