BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.28
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
In the short term, the commissioning of new gas pipelines in Europe, China and Mexico might become drivers of global pipeline gas trade growth, Trend reports with reference to Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
New export projects come mainly from GECF Member Countries, with 140 Bcm/y of new export gas pipeline capacity to be commissioned in 2019-2021.
Russia commissioned the Power of Siberia (38 Bcm/y) in December 2019 and TurkStream (31.5 Bcm/y) in January 2020, while Nord Stream 2 (55 Bcm/y) is likely to be completed in 2021. Azerbaijan’s Southern Gas Corridor represents 16 Bcm of new capacity, with TAP, the final phase of the project, to come online by the end of 2020.
In the short term, pipeline gas imports in Europe will largely depend on the pace of the recovery of gas demand after lockdown measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic are lifted in the region. Weather conditions in the winter season and the growing competition from LNG supply will be other crucial factors, which will have impact on pipeline gas supply. In any case, the contractual obligations of European importers under take-or-pay clauses will help pipeline gas supply to retain its dominant position.
In Asia, China will remain a key driver of regional pipeline gas trade. Russia’s Power of Siberia pipeline, whose design capacity represents 13% of China’s gas consumption, became the third major gas pipeline into China, in addition to the pipelines from Myanmar and from Central Asia, delivering gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In 2020, China is expected to import up to 5 Bcm from Russia.
The Middle East may increase intra-regional pipeline gas trade, driven by East Mediterranean production.
Latin American pipeline gas trade, whose dynamics depend largely on regional LNG imports, is likely to stagnate. Argentina can reduce its gas import dependency by increasing domestic shale gas production, however, Brazil may increase gas imports.
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