BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 13. European diesel imports are expected to remain subdued until demand potentially recovers in Q4 2024 with the arrival of winter, Trend reports with reference to BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.
According to JODI data, diesel demand in most European countries fell during the first quarter of 2024, with the largest declines observed in Poland and Germany. France, Europe's second-largest diesel market, experienced a significant year-on-year drop of 9.2%, bringing its demand down to 751,000 barrels per day. Polish demand plummeted by 33% year-on-year to 239,000 barrels per day. BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, notes that diesel demand in Europe is likely to face further downward pressure as Germany, the continent’s largest diesel consumer, plans to cut diesel subsidies for the agricultural sector.
European diesel imports also declined in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting sustained weakness in demand. Imports from key oil distribution and transshipment centers, the Netherlands and Belgium, fell by 25% and 5.3%, respectively, indicating widespread weakness in diesel trading activities across Europe.
In the US, structural declines in diesel demand from residential, commercial, industrial, and power sectors are undermining long-term growth prospects for 2024 and beyond. However, demand for agricultural diesel remains resilient, providing some support for overall diesel demand. BMI predicts that overall weakness in US diesel demand will keep inventory levels relatively high, exerting downward pressure on prices.
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