BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 18. Fitch Ratings has highlighted expectations of an increase in natural gas prices this autumn, driven by seasonal trends and market dynamics, Trend reports.
While U.S. gas production continues to outstrip consumption, the gap has narrowed recently. Fitch anticipates a decline in production due to announced curtailments, adding to the volatility of natural gas prices, which are particularly sensitive to weather conditions in the short term.
Despite the current surplus, Fitch has maintained its TTF base-case assumptions, noting that EU gas storage is currently 68 percent full. The agency believes that EU countries will be able to fully refill storage before the heating season, which should limit significant upward pressure on prices. However, a seasonal increase in prices is still forecast for the autumn, in line with typical natural gas price patterns.
Looking ahead, Fitch Ratings maintains that natural gas markets will remain fairly tight through 2024 and 2025. The introduction of new liquefied natural gas capacity in the U.S. and Qatar is expected to lead to a gradual decrease in prices starting from 2026.
Additionally, Fitch has adjusted its 2024 stress-case prices for Brent, WTI, and TTF to better reflect a realistic stress scenario, taking into account the price trends observed so far this year.
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