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Review of monetary sector in Azerbaijan (January-May 2017)

Analysis Materials 17 July 2017 17:15 (UTC +04:00)

The International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA) launched a voluntary restructuring process of its obligations as part of recovery in May. As a result of the restructuring, the bank's debts in foreign currency, attracted from certain financial institutions, will be directly transferred to the state.

The fulfillment of foreign creditors' foreign currency liabilities (with the exception of payment of interest on transactions to finance trade) is suspended till the procedure of transferring the debts to the government completes. As for other obligations of the bank, including operations on all deposits of legal entities and individuals, both residents and non-residents, their execution will continue in the current regime.

The Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FIMSA) has observed five more banks due to insufficient capital. Capitalization programs of these banks should be completed by the middle of the year. Atabank is one of these five banks. This bank had a number of problems with capitalization, payments were made with delays.

After the consolidation process, its authorized capital will be about 85 million manat, the capital adequacy ratio - about 40 percent, which significantly exceeds the requirements. The remaining four banks are small enough. Their assets make up about 5 percent of the total assets of the entire banking sector of Azerbaijan.

Currency reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) increased by almost $541.1 million (12.63 percent) in May 2017 as compared to May 2016, and amounted to $4,825.4 million.

CBA’s reserves increased by $206.1 million (4.46 percent) for the month.

During 2016, the currency reserves increased by 0.9 percent in March, 1.35 percent in April, 3.97 percent in May, 0.7 percent in August and 0.14 percent in November.

A stable increase in the CBA’s currency reserves by $851 million has been observed since early 2017.

Currency market and manat rate

A fully floating exchange rate regime has been observed in Azerbaijan for five months. During this time the CBA did not resort to serious interventions to maintain the manat rate. First, there was a period of destabilization, which was connected with the expectations of the market participants. This led to a significant decrease in the cost of manat.

However, then the market itself settled the rate and it stabilized. Today, the foreign exchange market is a market of supply, rather than demand. The pressure is made to appreciate the manat rate. Taking into account Azerbaijan's strategic goals, appreciation of the manat in the medium term may create problems for the balance of payments, given the current measures to reduce imports and support exports.

The exchange rate of manat against the dollar increased by 3.9 percent in January-May 2017. The lowest exchange rate of dollar for January-May 2017 was observed in May. It was 1.7020 USD / AZN May 26 and remained at this level until May 31.

The exchange rate of euro against the manat decreased by 1.9 percent in January-May 2017.

EUR / AZN rate increased in May. The highest exchange rate for the month was observed at 1.9062 EUR / AZN on May 26, while the lowest exchange rate was observed on May 12 at 1.8509 EUR / AZN.

Azerbaijani monetary market

The indicator of cash money supply in circulation (M0) amounted to 6,538.3 million manat in Azerbaijan in May 2017 that is by 17.2 percent more than in the same month of 2016, according to a CBA report.

The report says that the M0 indicator rose by 2.9 percent as compared to April 2017.

Meanwhile, Transaction Money (M1) increased by 15.3 percent for the year and decreased by 0.3 percent – up to 8,930.5 million manat as compared to April 2017.

The money supply rate (M2) (cash in circulation (outside banks) and remainders in the national currency on accounts of non-financial organizations, financial organizations (excluding credit organizations) and physical entities) amounted to 11,568.5 million manat in May 2017 increasing by 20.5 percent for the year, the report said.

The index decreased by 0.4 percent for the month.

As of May 2017, Broad Money Supply (M3) totaled 20,856.4 million manat or by 1.1 percent more compared to May 2016 and by 1.1 percent less than in April 2017.

Parameters of monetary market, in billion manat:

Monetary market parameters

Volume, May 2017

Money mass in extensive understating (М3)

20856,4

Money mass on manat (М2)

11568,5

Cash in manat (М0)

6538,3

Non-cash in manat

5030,2

The bank reserves in Azerbaijan amounted to 2.98 billion manat as of June 1, 2017, which exceeds the bank reserves’ amount in the country as of May 2016 by 43.6 percent (2.07 billion manat), read a CBA report.

The report said that the broad monetary base in Azerbaijan as of late May 2017 amounted to 10.08 billion manat or by 20.9 percent more compared to the same period of 2016. For comparison: this figure amounted to 8.34 billion manat as of May 2016.

According to the CBA, as of June 1, 2017, the monetary base in manat amounted to 7.78 billion manat compared to 7.64 billion manat as of June 1, 2016.

The volume of currency in circulation amounted to 7.05 billion manat during the reporting period, while this figure stood at 6.24 billion manat as of June 1, 2016.

The ratio of cash in circulation to monetary base as of June 1, 2017 amounted to 70 percent, decreasing by 4.8 percentage points compared to late May 2016.

Azerbaijan’s loan market

As of early June 2017, the Azerbaijani credit organizations’ loans totaled 14.794 million manat, which is by 27.7 percent less compared to the same period of last year, the CBA report said.

The volume of loans, issued by the Azerbaijani credit organizations, decreased by 4.3 percent for the month, said the report.

Loans in Azerbaijan’s national currency prevail in the structure of issued loans.

Some 54.2 percent (8,025.7 million manat) of all loans account for those loans. During the year, their volume decreased by 17.1 percent. The remaining funds are foreign currency loans (45.7 percent, or 6,768.3 million manat), their volume decreased by 20.6 percent compared to May 2016.

This ratio was 73 and 27 percent in early 2015. But the share of foreign currency loans began increasing, reaching 49.3 percent as of the year after the February devaluation of the manat.

However, Azerbaijan’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority established a moratorium on the issuance of consumer loans in foreign currency to the individuals who do not have foreign exchange earnings and bank deposits since April 2016 and imposed a ban on mortgage loans in foreign currency since May 2016.

Some banks began to convert dollar loans into manat loans.

In May 2017, the volume of overdue loans in Azerbaijani national currency reached 858.1 million manat, which is by 10.3 percent more compared to May 2016.

The share of overdue loans in Azerbaijani manat reached 5.8 percent of the loan portfolio of the country’s banks and non-banking credit organizations as of May 2017, the report said.

In May 2017, overdue loans in foreign currency amounted to 881.6 million manat, which is by 19.7 percent more compared to May 2016, and the share of these loans reached 5.9 percent.

In general, the total volume of overdue loans in Azerbaijan amounted to 1,739.8 million manat (14.9 percent increase for the year) with an 11.7 percent share.

As of late May 2017, the volume of short-term loans amounted to 3,019.8 million manat (including overdue loans worth 360.3 million manat), the volume of long term loans amounted to 11,774.3 million manat (including overdue loans worth 1,379.4 million manat).

According to the CBA, the loan portfolio of the state banks in Azerbaijan amounted to 4,765.6 million manat, and their share in the loan portfolio of the country’s banks and non-banking credit organizations was 32.2 percent.

Private banks issued loans worth 9,629.2 million manat, and their share amounted to 65.1 percent.

Some 3,941.4 million manat of these loans account for the share of banks with foreign capital.

The rest 2.7 percent accounted for the non-bank credit organizations which issued 399.2 million manat.

Lending to the fields of energy, chemistry and natural resources in Azerbaijan increased by almost twofold in May 2017 as compared to the same period of 2016 and by 1.3 percent as compared to April 2017, according to a CBA report.

The report says that 556.4 million manat accounted for the share of loans in this sector. The specific weight of loans, issued for the projects in the sphere of energy, chemistry and natural resources, was 3.8 percent. In May 2016, this figure was 288.3 million manat (1.6 percent).

A major part of loans still accounts for consumer loans in Azerbaijan – 5,165.6 million manat (decrease by 25.5 percent as compared to the same figure in 2016). The figure decreased by 1.2 percent as compared to April 2017.

The reduction in consumer lending in Azerbaijan began after the first devaluation of Azerbaijan’s national currency – the manat [on February 21, 2015, when the exchange rate of the US dollar against the manat increased by almost 34 percent].

However, a lion’s share of banks’ total loan portfolio – 34.9 percent – still accounts for the share of consumer loans [as of May 2017]. This figure was 38.1 percent in May 2016.

The sphere of trade and services (14.8 percent or 2,191.8 million manat) ranks second and is followed by the construction and real estate sector (11.9 percent or 1.757 million manat).

In May 2017, the amount of loans for transportation and communication exceeded the amount of the loans issued for the industrial and production sector and totaled 1,002.1 million manat (6.8 percent). Agriculture and processing sphere accounted for 2.9 percent (449 million manat) during the period.

The loans issued to the population in the Azerbaijani regions in May 2017 amounted to 2.220 million manat, or 15 percent of the total loan portfolio of banks, which is by 24.9 percent less than in the same period of 2016.

According to the CBA, the loans worth 12,573.97 million manat were issued in Baku in May 2017 that is by 5.66 times more than in the districts. Some 6,488.2 million manat (51.6 percent of total lending volume in Baku) accounted for the loans in national currency.

For comparison: as of May 2016, borrowers received loans worth 18,197.1 million manat in Baku, of which 9.676 million manat accounted for the loans in national currency.

The average annual interest rate on loans in the country as of May 2017 was 10.8 percent, while 9.3 percent in Baku.

Districts

Lending volume

Average interest rate

Thousand manat

Including manat

Absheron

463798,7

317887,1

15,8

Aran

550322,4

364892,0

22,0

Mountain Shirvan

79908,.9

54403,7

21,7

Ganja-Gazakh

469978,8

315985,4

18,8

Guba-Khachmaz

168168,6

119842,.4

19,0

Lankaran

194465,0

122136,1

21,5

Seki-Zagatala

148483,4

105417,3

21,4

Upper-Karabakh

37933,9

32413,5

16,8

Kalbajar-Lachin

1064,4

792,7

12,5

Nakhchivan

105902,0

103723,1

9,1

The average interest rate on deposits in Azerbaijani banks decreased in national currency and foreign currency in May 2017 compared to May 2016, the report said.

The average rate on deposits in manat amounted to 12.34 percent in May 2017 compared to 12.26 percent in April 2017 and 12.43 percent in May 2016.

The average rate on loans in foreign currency amounted to 8.88 percent in May 2017 compared to 8.43 percent in April 2017 and 10.19 percent in May 2016.

The legal entities received manat loans at an average rate of 8.91 percent in May 2017 compared to 8.75 percent in April 2017 and 8.28 percent in May 2016.

The average rate on bank lending to the corporate clients in foreign currency amounted to 5.92 percent in May 2017 compared to 5.49 percent in April 2017 and 5.73 percent in May 2016.

As of May 2017, the average rate on manat loans to physical entities amounted to 15.71 percent compared to 15.76 percent in April 2017 and 16.72 percent as of May 2016.

The average rate on bank lending to the individual customers in foreign currency was 16.08 percent compared to 16.40 percent and 19.30 percent accordingly.

Mortgage lending

Azerbaijan Mortgage Fund (AMF) issued loans worth 11.3 million manat in May 2017, which is by 80.5 times more than in April 2016.

The issuance of mortgage loans was suspended in May 2016.

According to the CBA report, in May the volume of refinancing of loans issued by banks earlier amounted to 9 million manat. Since the beginning of the year, 20.4 million manat has been transferred from the state budget to the AMF.

The average monthly amount of the loan delivered by the AMF’s authorized banks was 42,390.3 manat in May 2017 (42,187.6 manat in May 2016). The average period of the loan is 280 months (280 months a year earlier). The average annual interest rate is 6.67 percent (6.7 percent a year earlier). The average monthly amount for payments is 304.3 manat (296.6 manat a year earlier).

In general, AMF’s authorized lending institutions have issued 19,153 mortgage loans worth 802.7 million manat since 2006 and up till now.

According to the new mortgage loan issuance order, approved in June 2016, an ordinary mortgage loan will be issued only to Azerbaijani citizens and only in the national currency for a term from 3 years to 25 years, while preferential mortgage - up to 30 years to purchase a house, owned by the citizen. Interest rates on conventional mortgage must not exceed eight percent, while 4 percent per annum in preferential mortgage loan.

The maximum amount of the mortgage loan (including preferential) is determined by Azerbaijan Mortgage Fund JSC and must not exceed the cost of repaired housing with an average of 100 square meters in zone #7 in Baku. Annual interest rates on the loan are determined by the company’s Supervisory Board.

The amount of preferential mortgage loan must be 85 percent of the cost of purchased housing by the date of the loan issuance, except for cases when a borrower appeals to decrease the loan amount. The amount of conventional mortgage loan must not be less than 75 percent and more than 85 percent of the cost of purchased housing by the moment of the loan issuance, except for the cases when a borrower appeals to decrease the loan amount.

The monthly payment for a mortgage loan must not exceed 70 percent of a debtor's monthly income. The age of the borrower must not exceed the retirement age according to the legislation. An agreement on life insurance is required.

The family members of war victims, national heroes, internally displaced people, civil servants with at least a three years' experience, teachers of secondary schools with at least a five-year service term, PhDs, doctors of science and those having special merits in sport as well as the military with at least a three-year service term can use the preferential conditions. Each family having the right to such a mortgage loan can use it only once.

Around 25 out of 32 banks in the country, as well as 16 insurance companies [in total 21] and 11 appraisal organizations are the authorized banks of the Azerbaijan Mortgage Fund.

Azerbaijan’s banking sector

As of May 2017, the total amount of deposits of physical and legal entities drawn by the Azerbaijani credit organizations amounted to 21.59 billion manat.

The deposit base of banks decreased by 2.5 percent in May 2017 and by 6.8 percent per annum.

The amount of deposits in the Azerbaijani national currency – manat reached 5.35 billion manat as of May 2017, 2.41 billion manat of which accounted for demand deposits, 2.93 billion manat - term deposits, the report said.

According to the report, the deposits in freely convertible currency reached 16.24 billion manat including 5.88 billion manat - demand deposits, 10.35 billion manat - term deposits.

Thus, as of June 1, 2017, 24.8 percent accounted for the deposits in manat, 75.2 percent of the total deposit base of banks accounted for foreign currency.

According to the report, the physical entities' deposits exceeded 6.84 billion manat in May 2017. Most of the physical entities' deposits accounted for the ones in the foreign currency – 74.5 percent or 5.10 billion manat, the report said.

According to the report, the population’s deposits decreased by 0.4 percent for the month and by 9.6 percent per annum.

The total volume of the legal entities’ deposits in Azerbaijani banks reached 14.74 billion manat or by 5.4 percent (15.58 billion manat) less than in May 2016, the report said.

As of June 1, 2017, the amount of the Azerbaijani financial organizations’ deposits reached 4.77 billion manat compared to 6.22 billion manat as of June 2016.

The amount of the Azerbaijani non-financial organizations’ deposits reached 9.97 billion manat compared to 9.36 billion manat as of May 2016.

The population’s bank deposits in Azerbaijani districts (except for Baku) totaled 503.39 million manat in May 2017, that is, 7.4 percent of all deposits, the report said.

According to the CBA report, the share of bank deposits in districts was 6.13 percent (469.4 million manat) in May 2016.

As of early June 2017, the amount of deposits in Baku amounted to 6.34 billion manat, while the deposits in the national currency – 1.4 billion manat.

According to the report, the national currency savings of the residents of Azerbaijani districts amounted to 297.23 million manat or 59 percent of all deposits in the districts in May 2017.

As of May 2017, the average annual deposit rate throughout the country reached 4.5 percent while 4.4 percent in Baku.

Distribution of bank deposits in Azerbaijani districts:

Districts

Amount of deposits (thousand manat)

Average interest rate (%)

Absheron

152221,1

6,1

Aran

87450,9

4,5

Mountain Shirvan

12580,2

5,0

Ganja-Gazakh

109621,9

5,8

Guba-Khachmaz

33515,2

5,8

Lankaran

37490.0

6,3

Seki-Zagatala

31522,5

4,3

Upper-Karabakh

7721,8

2,5

Kalbajar-Lachin

148,4

2,0

Nakhchivan

31126,6

2,3

The average interest rate on deposits in Azerbaijani banks increased in national currency and decreased in foreign currency in May 2017 compared to May 2016, the report said.

The average rate on deposits in manat amounted to 7.16 percent in May 2017 compared to 7 percent in April 2017 and 7.78 percent in May 2016.

The average rate on deposits in foreign currency amounted to 3.79 percent in May 2017 compared to 3.88 percent in April 2016 and 5.42 percent in May 2016.

The banks drew deposits of legal entities in manat in the amount of 4.04 percent per annum in May 2017 compared to 4.04 percent in April 2017 and 5.49 percent in May 2016.

The funds on the accounts denominated in the foreign currency brought 2.87 percent to legal entities in May 2017, 2.91 percent in April 2017 and 3.17 percent in May 2016.

As of June 1, 2017, the average interest rate on deposits of physical entities in manat made up 11.32 percent compared to 11.04 percent as of late April 2017 and 8.95 percent as of May 2016.

The interest rates on deposits of physical entities in foreign currency are as follows: 4.47 percent in May 2017, 4.55 percent in April 2017 and 6.94 percent in May 2016.

Financial activity of banks

The banking sector of Azerbaijan completed the first five months of 2017 with a net profit of 178.2 million manat, according to a banking sector outlook of the country’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FIMSA).

It should be recalled that the Azerbaijani banks completed January 2017 with a net total loss of 496 million manat, while in February 2017, they made a profit of 50 million manat, and according to the results of the 1Q17, the total net profit amounted to 123.4 million manat.

In 2016, the Azerbaijani banks’ loss totaled 1.67 billion manat.

During the period, revenues of the banking sector on loan interest amounted to 623.8 million manat, and interest expenditures on deposits totaled 162.3 million manat. Net interest income of the sector amounted to 432.2 million manat and operating profit totaled 436.7 million manat in late May 2017.

The funds deducted from the sector for the creation of special reserves to cover possible risks on assets decreased by almost fivefold and amounted to 248.6 million manat as of May 2017 compared to late 2016.

Total volume of capital of Azerbaijan’s banking sector amounted to almost 2.76 billion manat in January-May 2017, according to a banking sector outlook.

Total capital volume of Azerbaijani banks has increased by 44.5 percent since early 2017.

By late May 2017, the sector’s total assets amounted to 30.1 billion manat as compared to 31.44 billion manat in late 2016.

As of late May, the banks’ cash amounted to 1.23 billion manat (1.08 billion manat – as of 2016), while investments in securities – 1.7 billion manat compared to 414.6 million manat as of late 2016.

Azerbaijani banks’ liabilities to the CBA amounted to 683.3 million manat compared to 1.695 billion manat as of 2016.

As of late May 2017, some 560 branches and 141 bank offices in Azerbaijan, according to a survey of the country's banking sector.

For comparison, some 560 branches and 140 offices of 32 banks operated in the country in April.

During the reporting period, 31 banks operated in the country, two of which were state-owned banks. Sixteen banks have foreign capital. The share of foreign shareholders exceeds 50 percent of the authorized capital in seven banks. There are two branches of foreign banks operating in the country (Bank Melli Iran and National Bank of Pakistan).

According to the survey, as of late May, 16,034 people worked in the banking sector of the country, whereas a month earlier 16,214 employees worked in the banking sector. Some 16,947 people have worked in the banking sector at the beginning of the year. The number of employees of the banking sector has decreased by 5.4 percent since the beginning of this year.

Payment card market

The total turnover on payment cards via ATMs and POS-terminals amounted to 1.2 billion manat in Azerbaijan in May 2017 or by 17.2 percent more than in May 2016, said the CBA’s report. According to the report, the total number of transactions with payment cards reached almost 8.30 million units increasing by 17.8 percent for the year.

The number of transactions on debit cards reached 7.51 million units totaling 1.1 billion manat during the reporting period. Of the total number of transactions, 5.12 million transactions amounting to 938 million manat were implemented on debit cards via ATMs within the country, and 618,000 transactions amounting to 98 million manat via POS-terminals.

As much as 795,000 transactions worth 118 million manat were made on credit cards in May 2017. Of the total number of transactions on credit cards, 167,000 transactions worth 36 million manat were implemented via ATMs and there were 231,000 transactions worth 36 million manat via POS-terminals.

The number of payment cards in Azerbaijan increased by 2.5 percent in May 2017 and reached up to 5.55 million units compared to May 2016.

Of the total number of cards, 4.99 million units accounted for debit cards, in particular, 2.55 million - social cards, 1.70 million - payroll cards, 0.74 million - other cards. The number of credit cards was 566,000.

As of June 1, 2017, as many as 2,476 ATMs operated in the country of which 1,345 are located in Baku and 1,131 in other cities and districts of the country. The total number decreased by 97 units or 3.8 percent for the year compared to May 2016.

The number of POS-terminals amounted to 70,174 units of which 39,708 are installed in Baku and 30,466 units in other cities and districts as of late May 2016.

The number of POS-terminals has decreased by 3,771 units or 5.1 percent for the year.

Stock market

The total turnover of exchange transactions on all instruments at the Baku Stock Exchange exceeded 3.33 billion manat in January-May 2017, that is, by 2.3 times more than in January-May 2016.

The volume of the state securities market totaled 719.28 million manat (three times more for the year), while the turnover of corporate securities market reached 885.79 million manat (22.7 times more).

The volume of derivatives market exceeded 1.71 billion manat (45.8 percent more).

Comparative table on the trades results in the state and corporate sectors at the Baku Stock Exchange:

Market segments

Jan.-May 2017

Jan.-May 2016

Volume of transactions, AZN

Number of deals

Volume of transactions, AZN

Number of deals

I, State Securities Market

719 280 973,14

239

240 126 568,18

99

State bonds of finance ministry

289 873 793,75

178

240 126 568,18

99

Initial placement

263 838 354,29

139

147 462 637,44

67

secondary market

26 035 439,46

39

92 663 930,74

32

Notes (Central Bank)

429 407 179,39

61

0

0

Initial placement

429 407 179,39

61

-

-

secondary market

-

-

-

-

II, Market of shares

601 346 482,37

618

6 059 297,87

727

Initial placement

600 000 000,21

2

5 072 000,00

6

secondary market

1 346 482,16

616

987 297,87

721

III, Debt market

284 443 753,48

439

32 985 876,27

48

Mortgage bonds (Initial placement)

100 207 099,50

17

-

-

Mortgage bonds (secondary market)

90 494 775,23

13

15 014 457,08

7

Other corporate bonds

(initial placement)

-

-

4 013 779,85

22

Other corporate bonds

(secondary market)

93 741 878,75

409

13 957 639,34

19

- including market makers

624 891,00

-

1 687 722,86

-

IV, REPO transactions

11 577 467,73

17

0,00

0

Repo transactions of the Central Bank

-

-

-

-

Other repo transactions

11 577 467,73

17

-

-

V, Derivatives market

1 717 538 629,50

28 737,00

1 179 371 045,97

16 750,00

- currency

1 587 210 201

26 210

1 140 987 199

14 532

- goods

130 328 429

2 527

38 383 847

2 218

Total

3 334 187 306,22

30 050,00

1 458 542 788,30

17 624,00

The Azerbaijani National Depository Center registered 1,002 stock exchange transactions for the purchase and sale of securities worth 345.6 million manat in January-May 2017, which is by almost three times more than in January-May 2016. Some 166 off-exchange transactions worth almost 459.6 million manat were registered in January-May 2017 (an increase by 3.8 times for the year). Some 263 transactions on additional emission worth 1.7 billion manat were registered for five months. The amount of such transactions increased by 32.8 percent compared to January-May 2016.

The volume of transactions as of January-May 2017:

Concluded agreements

The number of exchange transactions

Exchange transactions, volume in manat

The number of off-exchange transactions

Amount of off-exchange transactions

The number of transactions on additional emission

The amount of transactions on additional emission

January

2

183

17 879 720

13

641 720

9

648 562 500

February

3

253

155 609 805

32

184 170 140

34

270 400 100

March

2

149

51 428 900

71

313 018

54

202 992 500

April

4

196

68 580 169

21

4 323 223,4

80

235 991 900

May

3

221

52 125 408

29

270 117 784

86

351 035 010

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