BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 30
By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:
The United States may face one of the most serious challenges in its foreign policy agenda, which in the long term may turn into the end for the Anglo-Saxon dominance in the Euro-Atlantic community in particular, and in the world as a whole.
The alliance between the US and the UK and their Special Relationship was largely a determining factor in their global leadership. Now, when there is a threat of the disintegration of one of them, the planetary interests of the United States can be affected.
This is possible secession of Scotland. The (still) United Kingdom has shortly to find a compromise between the two opposing positions:
London's position on the inadmissibility of a second referendum on independence saying that in 2014 the Scots have already expressed their support to remain in the United Kingdom, and that the results of their will should be respected.
The position of supporters of independence, who believe that after Brexit (more than 60% of Scots opposed leaving the EU), Scotland has the right to hold a second referendum and determine whether to remain in the UK or not.
The reputational losses of the dissolution of Great Britain would be colossal. Great Britain has always been a kind of global brand, surrounded with a halo of success and glorious victories. It achieved its success by being united. Many countries admire its experience in state-building and democratic traditions. If the successful alliance of the four nations, which have been boiling in one pot for three hundred years, breaks up, London will not be able to face the world as confidently as before.
But, these are, let’s say, intangible losses.
For the United States, the real threats lie primarily in the sphere of national defense and security. What will happen to the UK's nuclear arsenal? Or, will there be changes in the country's status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council?
Even having tremendous economic and geopolitical opportunities, it’s quite hard for the United States to achieve their global goals alone.
Two years ago, in his remarks on the Administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) President Trump touched this matter saying that American success is not a forgone conclusion, and that it must be earned.
“To succeed, we must integrate every dimension of our national strength, and we must compete with every instrument of our national power,” he said then.
Perhaps it would be correct to say that one of these aspects or instruments will be new (post-Brexit) springtime of the Special Relationship with the UK – the fifth largest economy in the world.
The first step is about to be taken: immediately after Brexit, the US is going to conclude a comprehensive agreement on trade and preferences with the UK. This will largely allow to maintain global leadership and to resist the American geopolitical competitors – China and Russia.
One of the most important components of NSS is “to preserve peace through strength.” Given that the UK has one of the world’s highest military budgets, its role in this regard can be invaluable.
Furthermore, after Brexit, the significance of the UK-US tandem increases against the background of the decline in partnership between the US and the EU in foreign policy (attitude to the Iranian nuclear deal), trade (the introduction of trade duties, Nord Stream-2, etc.), and defense (the last NATO Summit as an example).
So, for the US, the alliance with the UK not burdened with EU membership, again takes on the top priority.
However, only monolithic Britain will be able to effectively ensure the global interests of the alliance. Scotland’s secession might turn it from “the first among equals” to “one of many,” for the United States, and will greatly complicate the implementation of NSS.