Erdogan leads in surveys ahead of Turkish elections

Türkiye Materials 16 April 2023 15:42 (UTC +04:00)
Erdogan leads in surveys ahead of Turkish elections

Two surveys held at an interval of two weeks will likely put a smile on the face of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as he runs for another term, this time against an apparently stronger opposition, Trend reports citing Daily Sabah.

The latest poll by the Areda survey company was conducted between April 12-14 and with 10,136 people. It follows another carried out by the same company between March 28 and April 1. Erdogan will win 50.8% of the vote, according to the survey, while Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the main opposition bloc, may garner 43.1% of the vote. The two men are far ahead of Muharrem İnce, the only candidate without the backing of the alliance, who would win 4.5% of the vote, according to the survey. Sinan Oğan, a far-right candidate, remains at 1.6%.

Interviewees also overwhelmingly supported Erdogan in the case of a two-round election. Erdogan was their favorite, at 52.6%, when they answered who they would vote for in a possible second round. Kilicdaroglu also increased his vote in the survey regarding a two-round election and 47.4% of the interviewees said they would support him in the second round. The latest survey shows a 0.2% increase in Erdogan’s vote compared to March 28-April 1 survey.

Meanwhile, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) secured 40.4% of the vote in the survey, ahead of 25.5% for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) of Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which is viewed as the kingmaker in the election, comes third in the survey with 10.3% of the vote, although its candidates will run under the name of the Green Left Party (YSP) in the upcoming elections amid risk of a court-sanctioned closure of the party.

The HDP earlier implied it would endorse Kilicdaroglu in the presidential election while it will field its own candidates in the simultaneous parliamentary elections. The Good Party (IP), the major partner of the CHP in the opposition bloc, trailed behind the HDP at 7.6%.

In the meantime, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the main ally of the AK Party in the People’s Alliance would win 8.8% of the vote according to Areda’s survey. Muharrem Ince’s Homeland Party (MP) follows the IP in the survey, with 3.1%. Other partners in the People’s Alliance, the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the Great Union Party (BBP), have 1.6% and 0.3% of the vote respectively, while the anti-refugee, anti-migrant Victory Party (ZP), new to the political scene, appears to garner 1% of the vote.

Another poll, by the Metropoll survey company, sheds light on the rate of “undecided” voters, a segment of the society all parties seek to court. This segment, largely comprised of supporters of political parties disillusioned by their policies, may still carry the AK Party to power in May 14 elections after more than two decades in office. The AK Party will win only 35% of the vote without the inclusion of the “undecided” vote, according to the Metropoll survey, while this rate rises to 40.1% with the inclusion.

This is the first election since Türkiye held its first multiparty elections (again on another May 14, some 73 years ago) in which such a high number of alliances will compete. Although the partnerships were born out of necessity for the opposition, which has repeatedly failed against Erdogan and the AK Party, the AK Party has also found new allies in its People’s Alliance over the years.