BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 23. Russia could potentially increase its gas market share in Türkiye at the expense of the country's other suppliers, Trend reports.
However, the World Bank analysts think that the extent of this increase is expected to be modest and only temporary.
Historically, Russia has been Türkiye's primary gas supplier, constituting approximately 40 percent of total imports in 2022. The other two pipeline gas suppliers, Iran and Azerbaijan, made up 17 percent and 16 percent of the country's import mix, respectively. The remaining 27 percent came from various LNG suppliers, with the US, Algeria, and Egypt being the top three sources in 2022.
Considering factors like rising domestic production, limited consumption growth, and existing contractual commitments, the additional volume of Russian gas that could be exported to Türkiye is relatively restrained, the WB experts say.
n a hypothetical scenario where no new pipeline gas or LNG contracts are signed, and all other flexible import sources (including spot LNG purchases) are maintained at zero, the maximum amount of Russian gas Türkiye can absorb would peak at around 30 bcm in 2025. This is nearly 9 bcm above the 2022 levels and close to the combined nameplate capacity of the Blue Stream and TurkStream 1 pipelines (31.75 bcm).
However, the market space for Russian gas within Türkiye is projected to decrease to around 23 bcm by 2030, just slightly higher than the 2022 deliveries of 21.6 bcm, the WB noted. This reduction is anticipated following the ramp-up of the second phase of the Sakarya gas field towards the end of the decade, even if none of Türkiye's import contracts are extended beyond their current term.