BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 10. Following the closure of the Port of Baltimore due to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for US coal exports, Trend reports.
Thus, according to the agency, the closure led to a reduction of almost 3 million short tons (MMst), or more than 30 percent, in April and 2 MMst, or about 20 percent, in May compared to the March outlook.
The Port of Baltimore stands as the second-largest coal export hub in the country. Despite this setback, the EIA does not foresee a significant long-term impact on US coal exports. Factors such as coal price and quality play crucial roles in driving international demand, and the EIA expects that coal previously exported from Baltimore will find alternative routes through other US ports.
However, with the Port of Baltimore expected to remain closed until at least May, and uncertainty surrounding its full reopening and clearance of bottlenecks, the agency anticipates US coal exports to total 94 MMst in 2024, down 6 percent compared to the March forecast. In 2025, exports are projected to increase to 105 MMst, similar to previous forecasts.
Meanwhile, as the US continues to shift towards renewable energy sources and with low natural gas prices, coal-fired electricity generation is expected to decline. This will result in an 8 percent decrease in coal consumption by the electric power sector in 2024, followed by a further 5 percent decline in 2025.
With temporary drops in exports and electricity consumption, coal production is forecasted to be 5 percent lower in April and 4 percent lower in May compared to the March outlook. Consequently, the EIA has adjusted its forecast for coal production in 2024 to around 485 MMst, reflecting the overall trend.