BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 15. In its latest update, OPEC maintains that the global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains largely steady at 2.2 mb/d, in line with last month's evaluation, Trend reports.
However, there have been minor tweaks within the quarters, reflecting actual data received and expectations for near-term developments. Notably, while China saw a rise in oil demand primarily in 1Q2024, adjustments were made downwards for the OECD Americas during the same period and for the Middle East in the subsequent quarters.
Looking at specifics, OPEC projects a modest year-on-year growth of around 0.3 mb/d in OECD oil demand for 2024, with the Americas leading the charge, supported by slight increases from both Europe and Asia Pacific. Meanwhile, in non-OECD regions, oil demand is anticipated to soar by nearly 2 mb/d year-on-year, driven chiefly by China, with additional support from the Middle East, India, Other Asia, and Latin America.
For 1Q2024, global oil demand is estimated to have increased year-on-year by 2.4 mb/d. As for the full year, total world oil demand is expected to hit 104.5 mb/d, fueled by robust air travel demand, vigorous road mobility (including trucking), and thriving industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD nations. Furthermore, the addition of petrochemical capacities in non-OECD countries - primarily China and the Middle East - is anticipated to further bolster oil demand growth.
Looking ahead to 2025, the global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.8 mb/d year-on-year to 106.31 mb/d, mirroring the previous month's assessment. Within key regions, OPEC expects the OECD to see a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecasted to expand by 1.7 mb/d. In terms of product breakdown, transportation fuels are anticipated to be the primary growth drivers, with both jet/kerosene and gasoline expected to expand by approximately 0.5 mb/d each.