Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.7
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
BP projects that global energy consumption could increase by around a third by 2040, driven by this rising population and rising prosperity, BP Chief financial officer Brian Gilvary said during the JP Morgan Global Oil & Gas Investor Conference, London, UK.
He noted that over that same period, the world needs to reduce carbon emissions roughly by half, in order to meet the Paris climate goals.
“Yet on current trends, we project that emissions could actually rise, by 10 percent, out to 2040 – that’s based on what we call our ‘Evolving Transition’ case in our Energy Outlook. At BP, we call this the dual challenge — providing the energy essential to human prosperity while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet society’s goals,” said the BP chief financial officer,
He noted that renewables like wind and solar have been the fastest-growing form of energy for many years now. They clearly have an important role to play in helping us bring emissions down.
“However, to meet the Paris climate goals, broadly represented by the ‘Even Faster Transition’ scenario in our Energy Outlook, non-renewables still account for around 70 percent of global energy consumption in 2040, with oil and gas accounting for more than 40 percent,” said Gilvary.
So renewables alone won’t be sufficient, he said, adding that the world needs to make many different types of energy — including oil and gas — cleaner and better.
“Under BP’s Even Faster Transition scenario — again, a scenario which sets a trajectory consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals — the world consumes more than 80 million barrels of oil and other liquids per day in 2040. That’s compared to around 97 million barrels today,” he said.
“However, if there were no new investment in oil production, and assuming existing production declined at a rate of 3 percent a year, global liquid supplies would be around 45 million barrels a day in 2040. In other words, no new oil investment would produce a massive undersupply. This would drive up prices, dampen economic growth, and potentially destabilize financial markets. All of which would make both sides of the dual challenge even harder, slowing the rise in prosperity and reducing the funds available for investing in advancing the lower-carbon transition.”
As for BP’s activities in dealing with dual challenge, Gilvary said that the company is working to reduce emissions in its operations, improve its products to help the customers can reduce their emissions, and create low-carbon businesses.
“Our strategy embraces the transition and low-carbon future, for example through our support for a price on carbon, and is underpinned by a clear set of four strategic priorities that shape how we continue to create value in this rapidly changing world: growing advantaged oil and gas in the Upstream; pursuing market-led growth in the Downstream; supporting low-carbon investments and technology ventures across multiple fronts; and, modernizing the whole of BP to make us safer, more efficient and more competitive,” he added.
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