BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 25. The GDP growth in most Emerging markets (EMs) is expected to slow over the coming quarters, Trend reports via the research from the Capital Economics, an independent economic research consultancy based in London.
However, large commodity producers are an exception, as unexpected gains in terms of trade due to a sharp rise in commodity prices will lead to GDP growth in these countries, the research said.
“Hard activity figures show that there has been a divergence across sectors since the second half of 2021, with industrial production in EMs outperforming retail sales. EM industry has generally started the year on a solid footing, with manufacturers in Emerging Europe (outside Russia) performing particularly well. Output in Poland and Turkey, for example, increased by 7 percent and 4 percent in the first quarter of 2022, compared to the previous one,” Capital Economics said.
Meanwhile, the COVID-19 lockdowns, and the hostilities in Ukraine could still hamper industrial production, and aggravate supply shortages. High inflation, together with tightened monetary policy, is likely to continue to squeeze incomes and weigh on domestic demand.
Follow the author on Twitter: @mariiiakhm