Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb.21 /Trend, A.Akhundov/
Civil war in Libya is unlikely to happen, said Head of Middle East and North Africa Programme at the London-based Chatham House Dr. Claire Spencer.
"The protests are not so much within the Libyan society, but against the political system. They are not directed against each other," Spencer told Trend by phone on Monday.
The idea that Libya will split into two, one half against the other, is unreal, Spencer supposes.
"It's impossible it will happen because the protesters are all directing the anger against Gaddafi's system of government," she said.
A son of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has promised on Monday a programme of reforms after bloody protests against his father's rule reached the capital, Tripoli. Saif al-Islam Gaddafi also hit out at those behind the violence. He said protests against his father's rule, which have been concentrated in the east of the country, threatened to sink Libya into civil war and split the country up into several small states.
According to Spencer, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi made such a statement in order to defend his position and convince those who are not demonstrating that the protestors don't have legitimate concerns.
"He is using it to try stop the protesters going out the streets by warning that the things would get worse whereas the protesters are actually asking for a more representative government which includes removing Saif al-Islam Gaddafi himself from the position he is in now," she said.
Unconfirmed reports over the weekend suggested at least 200 people had been killed in violent clashes in Benghazi, when thousands of Libyans demonstrated against Muammar Gaddafi - who has been in power for 41 years. Independent verification has proved difficult due to the government's clampdown on communications and travel to the area. Some reports said the regime of Gaddafi had used foreign mercenaries to attack protestors.
The Libyan uprising is one of a series of revolts that have raced like wildfire across the Arab world since December, toppling the long-time rulers of Tunisia and Egypt and threatening entrenched dynasties from Bahrain to Yemen.
The situation in Libya may be messier than in Egypt and Tunisia because there are not significant forces in the country which can take over the power in case of fall of Gaddafi's regime, Spencer thinks.
"Libya doesn't really have the institutions of state like in Tunisia and Egypt. Most of the security forces in Libya have been directed against controlling people, so there is not a traditional independent army which can assume control. So, the big fear and the big question mark is who will actually take over should the Qaddafi regime fall," Spencer said.