BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 23. The office headed by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas confirmed 13 days ago the extension of the mandate of the EU mission in Armenia for another two years. At first glance, making this decision may seem like a routine diplomatic procedure, but there is a much larger geopolitical plan behind it.
Under the rhetoric of “peace support,” Brussels intends to utilize the monitoring mission in Armenia (EUMA) as a tool to change the balance of power in the South Caucasus.
EUMA's activities, previously presented as a “purely observation mission”, are eventually turning into activities of an agency, intelligence, and military nature.
The new mandate provides not only for continued monitoring of the situation but also for equipping the mission with military equipment, special vehicles, and weapons. European representatives, who previously were limited to “only binoculars and cameras”, will now be authorized to carry weapons.
The shift from watching to taking up arms shows the EU's intent to bolster its presence in the region, both in terms of political influence and military might.
The planned deployment of EUMA representatives on the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders is of particular concern. These territories are points of strategic geopolitical tension, where the interests of such major players as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran most acutely collide. The situation on the Armenian-Turkish border stands out in this context. It is guarded by Russian border guards under historical agreements. Brussels is aimed at the gradual displacement of the Russian military, including the strategically important 102nd military base in Gyumri. This is not just a diplomatic move, but an open challenge to Moscow and an attempt to influence regional dynamics.
The arming of EUMA would not have been possible without the active participation of France. Paris, the chief architect of this strategy, is on the hunt for fresh avenues to bolster its geopolitical standing after experiencing a notable decline in its sway over Africa and grappling with challenges in its overseas regions. The South Caucasus has become a convenient platform for the realization of France's ambitions. Emmanuel Macron is known for his harsh anti-Russian and anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric and openly supports the idea of “strengthening the European presence” in the region. However, in reality, this presence is causing increased tensions and a new arms race.
Emmanuel Macron speaks openly about Armenia's defense and strengthening European influence in the region. Behind his rhetoric are personal ambitions. France views Armenia as an instrument rather than an objective. As long as Paris can achieve its goals, it doesn't care about the country's future or stability.
The EU's support for Armenia is accompanied not only by political rhetoric but also by real steps. Through the European Peace Facility, Armenia has received military aid for 2023-2024, which includes armored vehicles, air defense systems, and other weapons. This emphasizes that Brussels views Armenia not as a partner but as a tool to achieve its strategic goals. Armenia's economy, security, and future interests European politicians only insofar as they can be used in geopolitical games.
This reckless and perilous approach to the region guarantees that local players will push back fiercely. Azerbaijan has made its feelings clear from the outset, voicing its discontent with the mission's partiality and neglect of Baku's concerns.
The official Baku warned last year that these attempts to change the balance of power in the South Caucasus would only lead to escalation and new conflicts. The expansion of the mandate of the EU mission in Armenia and its militarization further undermine the vulnerable stability in the region and threaten peace.
Türkiye views these European plans as a threat to its influence. The presence of EU armed units on the Armenian-Turkish border is not just a challenge for Ankara but an interference in its strategic interests.
Iran is keeping a watchful eye on the situation. The northern border with Armenia holds significant weight when it comes to Tehran's national security interests. Top Iranian officials, standing against the growth of the EU mission, have consistently pointed out that such actions would shake the foundations of regional stability.
The aforementioned policy of Brussels makes it difficult to accept the EU as an impartial mediator. The expansion of the European Union mission in Armenia is a step towards escalation, not peace. France, playing a key role in this process, is using the European Union to realize its ambitions. This policy not only undermines regional stability but also threatens overall security in the South Caucasus.
Brussels needs to reconsider its policy and prioritize balanced cooperation instead of unilateral support. Otherwise, the EU, having lost the trust of Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Iran, will further increase tensions in the region. The South Caucasus is a region that requires a delicate balance, and unilateral decisions only complicate the situation.
Recall that in March 2023, head of the EU mission, Markus Ritter declared in an interview with Deutsche Welle - “we have only binoculars and cameras at our disposal”. At the time, these statements sounded like a guarantee that the mission would remain purely observational. However, the situation has changed dramatically in two years. Brussels no longer hides that the mission will be equipped with modern military equipment and vehicles, and its personnel will have the right to carry weapons. These steps clearly show that the EU has moved away from its peacekeeping rhetoric and toward a military strategy.
The European Peace Facility plays a special role in this process. This instrument, created to finance EU military projects, has already been actively used to build up Armenia's military potential. This fund has allocated large amounts of resources for the supply of armored vehicles, air defense systems, and other military equipment during the period 2023-2024. Although formally these steps are explained by ensuring Armenia's security, in reality, they turn this country into a platform for foreign geopolitical games. Baku has long deciphered this approach. Azerbaijan has repeatedly urged the EU to refrain from unilateral policies, but these warnings have been ignored.
Brussels is causing a new wave of conflicts in the region, the South Caucasus is becoming an arena where the interests of regional states are sacrificed to the goals of external forces. The policy aimed at strengthening Armenia and increasing the EU's military presence carries serious risks for the entire region. This approach, which does not take into account the interests of Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Iran, looks like playing with fire. Militarization of the EU mission in Armenia is a step aimed not at peace but at control and influence.
The South Caucasus is a delicate and intricate area where a single misstep can ignite a fresh conflict. The European Union, while aiming to be a beacon of peace, may find itself stirring the pot of tension. If Brussels decides to take a hard line on militarization, it’s bound to stir the pot and create ripples far and wide.
The EU's decision to expand its mission in Armenia to 2025 has a geopolitical context. Brussels, hiding behind peacekeeping rhetoric, is turning this mission into an instrument of military and political pressure. The South Caucasus is becoming yet another arena where the interests of global and regional players collide.
The militarization of the EU mission carries serious risks for the South Caucasus. Instead of promoting stability, Brussels is exacerbating existing contradictions and creating new lines of tension. The EU's unilateral policy transforms it from an actor perceived as a neutral partner to a party to the conflict. The intervention of foreign forces further aggravates the confrontation between key regional players, complicating the peace process.
Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Iran have demonstrated an intransigent stance against an increased European military presence. This will further complicate regional dynamics, weaken security, and increase the risk of escalation. The South Caucasus is becoming a geopolitical battleground where local interests are ignored and the ambitions of foreign powers prevail.
The European Union mission in Armenia is shifting from a peacekeeping role to one that serves as a tool for political leverage and increased militarization. Under the guise of security, Brussels is pushing a strategy of geopolitical dominance that could jeopardize the region's stability.
Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Iran are openly protesting against such interference, emphasizing that the EU's steps will only deepen contradictions and create a new wave of tension. If Brussels is really interested in stability in the South Caucasus, it should reconsider its approach. Otherwise, the EU runs the risk of turning the existing tensions into a full-scale crisis, losing the trust of regional players.
Obviously, Armenia is not a partner for France, but a tool. Paris isn't exactly aiming for lasting peace in the South Caucasus. On the flip side, it is poised to trade peace in the region for the chance to undermine its geopolitical rivals—Russia, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan. This policy brings up valid concerns: how closely do the interests of Paris and Brussels align with the goals of regional stability? Are they prepared to consider how their actions might ripple through the peace in the Caucasus?
Stay up-to-date with more news on Trend News Agency's WhatsApp channel