BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 2
By Sadraddin Aghjayev - Trend:
The non-oil and gas sector was the internal factor determining the restoration of the Azerbaijani economy during the first nine months of 2021, Deputy Head of the Research Department at Russian Gazprombank Gulnara Khaidarshina told Trend on Dec. 2.
The deputy head of the research department added that this sector suffered greatly in 2020 as a result of the special quarantine regime.
“Azerbaijan's non-oil and gas GDP during the reporting period increased by 6.2 percent on an annualized basis compared to a decline of 2.4 percent in the same period of last year,” Khaidarshina said.
The deputy head of the research department added that the sphere of paid services rendered to the population increased by 4.6 percent after a decline of 25.7 percent from January through September 2020.
“Retail turnover grew by 2.8 percent after a decline of 1.6 percent last year,” Khaidarshina said.
The deputy head of the research department added that as opposed to Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, agriculture in Azerbaijan has not suffered as a result of weather conditions this year and grew by five percent during nine months.
Khaidarshina added that certain sectors of the economy need additional time to recover.
“In particular, amid the restrictions on international transportation, there are still negative growth rates in passenger transportation, which reached 10 percent year on year from January through September 2021, even despite the low base last year, when the decline reached 37.4 percent,” the deputy head of the research department said.
Khaidarshina said that there is still a 0.2 percent decline in freight transportation (the decline was 18.5 percent in the same period of last year).
The deputy head of the research department also said that during the period of a special quarantine regime in Azerbaijan until the end of last year, the low base effect in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 persists not only for the oil and gas sector but also for the non-oil and gas sector.
“According to our estimates, the economic growth increased by 6.4 percent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2021, while we expect the peak of growth in the fourth quarter,” Khaidarshina said.
“GDP growth will reach 9.3 percent when domestic demand gradually recovers in accordance with our renewed, more optimistic outlook, which assumes an average Brent crude oil price of $80.5 per barrel during this period,” the deputy head of the research department added.
“Proceeding from this scenario, we confirm our forecast, according to which, the Azerbaijani economy will recover up to 5.1 percent as of 2021,” Khaidarshina said.
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