BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 25. Global coal production is anticipated to see an uptick of 1.8 percent in 2023, Trend reports.
According to the recent estimations made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), this growth will be fueled by ongoing expansion in India, China, and Indonesia, which outweighs declines in the United States and the European Union.
In 2022, global coal demand kept growing, riding the momentum from the substantial rebound in 2021 and pushing global coal supplies to new heights at approximately 8,582 Mt, marking a 7-percent increase, the agency noted. China took the lead in this growth, ramping up domestic production to offset the impact of surging import prices and preempt potential supply shortages. Indonesia outpaced India in production growth, with exports witnessing a remarkable surge to meet the rising seaborne demand for thermal coal, fueled by both increased international and domestic consumption.
Consequently, 2023 is slated to hit yet another all-time high in global coal production, reaching a staggering 8,741 Mt. Steam coal and lignite jointly contribute to around 87 percent of this production, with their increased output mirroring a similar chunk of the overall global production surge. The remaining portion is attributed to coking coal, mainly propelled by robust growth in Mongolia.
Looking ahead, the IEA foresees a net decline in global coal production starting in 2024, aligning with the peak in global coal demand observed in 2023. The anticipated reduction in the United States and the European Union will likely be coupled with decreased production in Indonesia, driven by an expected dip in Chinese demand for seaborne thermal coal, the outlook noted.
While India stands out as a notable contributor to production growth, meeting the rising demand from its power sector, the IEA model suggests that declines in other nations will outweigh this upswing. Consequently, the agency projects global coal production to hit 8,394 Mt by 2026.